The One Metric That Could Make or Break This Power Giant in 2025

As AI reshapes the global economy, a quiet revolution is unfolding in the background, a surge in electricity demand unlike anything seen in decades.

CFRA’s Jonathan Sakraida says the near-term headline will be less about whether the company beats (he pegs EPS around $1.72) and more about 2025 margin trajectory and the firm’s ability to convert its hefty gas-turbine backlog into shipments and earnings. He describes a rare “step-change” in U.S. electricity demand (EIA +2% this year, +3% next), driven chiefly by AI data centers with an assist from manufacturing reshoring; still, CFRA moved the stock to Hold when valuation ran hot (~70× P/E at the time) and is waiting for clearer evidence on restructuring, capacity expansion, and execution. Pricing power is real and embedded in backlog, but older, lower-priced orders can mute margins near term. He downplays wind as a core driver versus power and electrification, is positive on the Alteia acquisition for grid modernization, and thinks multi-year backlog stretching toward 2028–2030 provides resilience even if AI enthusiasm cools—hence a wait-and-see stance focused on margin progression.

We dig into:

⚡ How AI data centers are driving record-high power demand

⚡ Why reshoring and electrification could fuel a lasting energy super-cycle

⚡ GE Vernova’s massive backlog and the challenge of converting orders into profit

⚡ Whether the “AI bubble” could pop — and who still wins if it does

⚡What investors should watch next in industrials and grid modernization