MetLife's Stock Rises 0.83% on $0.35 Billion Volume Surge, Ranks 390th in Market

Market Snapshot

MetLife (MET) experienced a 0.83% price increase on October 31, 2025, despite a significant surge in trading volume. The stock’s volume reached $0.35 billion, a 57.98% increase from the previous day, ranking it 390th in the market. This volume spike suggests heightened investor activity, potentially driven by earnings expectations and institutional trading. The price gain, though modest, aligns with Wall Street analysts’ revised earnings projections, which now anticipate $2.33 per share for the upcoming quarter—a 20.7% year-over-year increase. However, the stock’s performance lagged behind broader market benchmarks, with a -2.7% return over the past month compared to the S&P 500’s +2.1% gain.

Key Drivers

Earnings and Revenue Forecasts Fuel Optimism

Wall Street analysts have upwardly revised MetLife’s quarterly earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 0.8% over the past 30 days, reflecting confidence in the company’s financial performance. The consensus forecast for Q3 2025 includes $2.33 EPS and $18.84 billion in revenue, a 7% year-over-year increase. Key revenue segments, such as premiums ($11.41 billion, +7.2%) and net investment income ($5.47 billion, +4.7%), are expected to drive growth. Analysts attribute this optimism to MetLife’s diverse revenue streams, including Latin America and Asia, where adjusted revenues are projected to rise by 8.4% and 8.5%, respectively. These forecasts suggest that MetLife’s global operations are outpacing its U.S. counterparts, mitigating risks from slower domestic growth.

Institutional Investor Activity and Dividend Appeal

Recent institutional investor actions underscore confidence in MetLife’s long-term value. Jennison Associates LLC increased its stake by 5.7%, acquiring 174,419 additional shares, while Mizuho Markets Cayman LP added 37,297 shares. These moves follow MetLife’s announcement of a quarterly dividend of $0.5675 per share, yielding 2.9% annually. The dividend, coupled with a payout ratio of 38.47%, signals financial stability, attracting income-focused investors. Additionally, MetLife’s recent sale of its brokerage subsidiary, Murray Wise Associates, at a premium, aligns with its strategy to streamline operations. While this transaction is expected to reduce auction and brokerage revenues, the proceeds will likely bolster capital efficiency, supporting future dividends and share repurchases.

Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Adjustments

Analysts have reaffirmed bullish sentiment through updated ratings and price targets. UBS Group raised its price objective to $91, while Morgan Stanley set a $97 target, both maintaining “buy” or “overweight” ratings. These upgrades reflect confidence in MetLife’s earnings resilience and strategic initiatives, such as its focus on high-growth regions like Asia and Latin America. However, some firms, including Piper Sandler, have downgraded the stock to “neutral,” citing potential challenges in corporate net investment income, which is projected to decline 13.5% year-over-year. Despite this divergence, the consensus rating remains “Moderate Buy,” with an average price target of $95.18, indicating a collective expectation of 10-15% upside from current levels.

Strategic Transactions and Market Positioning

MetLife’s recent real estate transactions highlight its strategic flexibility. The company sold Seattle Gateway I and II near SeaTac Airport to LaSalle Investment Management for $88.6 million, signaling a shift toward asset optimization. This move aligns with broader trends in the insurance sector, where firms are divesting non-core assets to enhance returns. The transaction also reflects MetLife’s ability to capitalize on market opportunities, such as the appreciation of farmland and commercial properties. While these sales may temporarily reduce auction and brokerage revenues, they free up capital for higher-return investments, reinforcing MetLife’s competitive positioning in a low-growth insurance landscape.

Earnings Miss and Forward-Looking Guidance

MetLife’s Q3 2025 earnings report, released on August 6, fell short of expectations, with $2.02 EPS versus the $2.32 forecast. Revenue of $17.34 billion also lagged behind the $18.58 billion estimate, driven by a 2.7% year-over-year decline in U.S. operations. However, management emphasized long-term growth drivers, including the expansion of its loan program and cost reductions from debt repayments. The company’s forward-looking guidance—$9.65 EPS for the year—suggests confidence in overcoming near-term challenges. Analysts view these adjustments as temporary, with renewed focus on high-margin segments like Asia and Latin America likely to offset weaker domestic performance.

Market Reaction and Risk Factors

Despite the earnings miss, MetLife’s stock closed 1.98% higher post-earnings, reflecting investor optimism about its strategic initiatives and dividend policy. The stock’s beta of 0.86 and P/E ratio of 13.35 indicate relative stability, making it a defensive play in a volatile market. However, risks persist, including litigation costs and potential interest rate hikes. The company’s upcoming refinancing of its MetLife term loan in March 2026 could increase borrowing costs if rates remain elevated. Additionally, the sale of Murray Wise Associates, while beneficial for simplification, introduces uncertainty in auction and brokerage revenue streams. Investors will closely monitor these factors as they assess MetLife’s ability to sustain its current momentum.