METLEN’s Strategic Pivot: A €2 Billion EBITDA Ambition Fueled by Critical Metals and Defense Innovation

LONDON—METLEN, the Greek industrial powerhouse, laid out an audacious vision at its recent Capital Markets Day: to double its EBITDA to €2 billion within the medium term through a blend of organic growth, strategic sector expansion, and technological innovation. The roadmap, unveiled in London, underscores the company’s shift from a traditional infrastructure and energy player to a key stakeholder in Europe’s energy transition, defense modernization, and critical raw materials supply chains.

The blueprint hinges on three new growth pillars—Critical Metals, Circular Metals, and Defense—alongside the acceleration of its existing Energy, Metals, and Infrastructure divisions. Backed by €3 billion in liquidity and a disciplined capital allocation strategy, METLEN aims to capitalize on structural trends while maintaining a conservative leverage ratio below 2x.

The Pillars of Ambition

1. Critical Metals: Gallium as a Geopolitical Lever
At the core of METLEN’s strategy is its gallium production initiative, a €296 million project to establish Europe’s first active gallium facility in Greece. Targeting 50 tonnes annually, the plant will address the EU’s reliance on Chinese imports of this semiconductor and defense-critical material. Recognized as a Strategic Project under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), this venture positions METLEN at the heart of Europe’s supply chain resilience efforts.

2. Circular Metals: Closing the Loop
The company is pioneering circular metallurgy, recovering critical metals like alumina and bauxite from industrial waste with 99% efficiency. This platform aims to produce ~290 kilotons per annum of high-value materials, reducing mining dependency and enhancing profitability. The environmental and economic case is clear: turning waste into a revenue stream while aligning with EU sustainability mandates.

3. Defense Industrialization: From Steel to Strategy
METLEN is expanding its Volos-based industrial complex to produce advanced military vehicles, such as the VBCI PHILOCTETES® infantry fighting vehicle in partnership with KNDS France. Collaborations with Iveco Defence Vehicles (IDV) and EU-funded programs aim to deliver €150 million in mid-term EBITDA from defense projects. This pivot leverages Greece’s strategic location and EU defense spending growth, projected to hit €140 billion by 2030.

Existing Divisions: Strength in Synergy

Energy Transition Dominance
METLEN’s renewables platform is advancing 2 GW of mature pipeline projects, including a landmark 588 MW solar and battery storage deal in Chile. With an EPC backlog exceeding €1.5 billion, the company is also targeting 30% of Greece’s retail energy market by 2028. Geographic expansion into Italian and Swiss trading hubs further amplifies its reach in Europe’s interconnected grids.

Metals Value Chain Mastery
As the EU’s sole vertically integrated bauxite-to-aluminum producer, METLEN’s control over its private port facilities and proprietary recovery technologies insulate it from supply chain shocks. The gallium project extends this dominance into the semiconductor sector, a market valued at €670 billion globally.

Infrastructure Resilience
METKA ATE, METLEN’s engineering arm, is capitalizing on Greece’s €18 billion annual infrastructure pipeline, with flagship projects like the Thessaloniki Flyover and bioclimatic school units. A €1.5 billion project backlog and a 20-25% market share target underscore its operational strength.

ESG and Financial Fortitude

METLEN’s strategy is deeply aligned with EU policy, from the CRMA to climate targets. Its €1.5 billion renewable investment program and circular metallurgy initiatives reduce carbon footprints while boosting margins. Meanwhile, robust liquidity and a leverage ratio below 2x provide a safety net during cyclical downturns.

The dual listing on the London and Athens Stock Exchanges—via a share exchange offer—will broaden investor access, appealing to global funds seeking exposure to European industrial champions.

Conclusion: A Strategic Play for the Decade

METLEN’s roadmap is not merely an earnings target but a blueprint for industrial leadership. With €1.08 billion in current EBITDA, a €3 billion liquidity buffer, and projects that lock in recurring revenue (e.g., infrastructure concessions, defense contracts), the company is well-positioned to achieve its €2 billion goal.

The critical metals and defense plays, in particular, offer asymmetric upside. Gallium’s role in semiconductors and defense systems ensures steady demand, while EU funding for defense industrialization mitigates execution risks. Meanwhile, the renewables and infrastructure divisions provide a stable earnings base, supported by €1.5 billion in EPC backlogs and a growing energy retail presence.

Investors should monitor METLEN’s progress in securing EU CRMA funding for gallium, its market penetration in Greek energy retail, and the execution of defense partnerships like the VBCI PHILOCTETES® production. With a stock price that has risen sharply since 2020 and a dual listing set to enhance visibility, METLEN is emerging as a strategic bet on Europe’s industrial renaissance—one that combines geopolitical necessity with compelling financials.

In a world where energy transition and supply chain security dominate policy agendas, METLEN’s timing could not be better. The question is no longer whether it can hit its EBITDA target, but how high it can aim next.