Metis/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price action shows a sharp 15-minute breakout and retest of key support.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions late in the session.
• Volume surged sharply during the 14:45–15:30 ET window.

Opening Summary

Metis/Tether (METISUSDT) opened at $9.74 on 2025-11-08 12:00 ET and closed at $9.53 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-09, reaching a high of $11.59 and a low of $9.29. Total 24-hour trading volume was 197,612.13 METIS, with a notional turnover of $1,928,438.45.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a strong bullish reversal in the afternoon as it broke out of a descending wedge pattern with a 15-minute candle forming a hammer at $9.31. This was followed by a strong bull trend with a high of $11.59 at 15:15 ET. A bearish correction formed a large upper shadow at $10.51, suggesting resistance around $10.50–$10.60.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed to the upside during the breakout from the wedge, confirming the bullish shift. The 50-period line provided dynamic support during the consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bullish crossover with a rising histogram as the breakout unfolded. RSI surged above 70 at 15:15 ET, signaling overbought conditions, though divergence was noted in the following hours as prices pulled back without a corresponding RSI drop.

Bollinger Bands

Price action briefly pierced the upper Bollinger Band at the peak of the breakout, indicating high volatility. The subsequent retracement to the lower band at $9.40 suggested a temporary exhaustion of the bullish move.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume spike occurred at 14:45 ET, with a 15-minute candle showing a 23,778 METIS volume. This coincided with a breakout to $9.99. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, reinforcing the legitimacy of the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent swing high of $11.59 and low of $9.31 identified key retracement levels at 61.8% ($10.18) and 38.2% ($10.74). Price stalled near the 61.8% level, hinting at potential resistance in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

To refine our strategy, a backtesting approach based on the Bullish Engulfing pattern could offer insight. This pattern typically involves a large bullish candle that engulfs a prior bearish one. While this pattern was not detected in the data provided, it could be applied retrospectively using raw OHLC data to identify potential trade entries. A 3-day holding period could be tested from those entries, measuring win rate, average return, and drawdowns.