Metaplanet's Strategic Shift in Bitcoin Accumulation: A Flywheel in Reverse?

Metaplanet’s audacious Bitcoin treasury strategy has positioned it as a global leader in corporate crypto adoption, but cracks are forming in its capital-raising flywheel. By mid-2025, the Tokyo-listed firm had amassed 20,000 BTC ($2.14 billion), joining the ranks of the world’s top six Bitcoin holders [1]. Its goal to acquire 210,000 BTC (1% of Bitcoin’s supply) by 2027 hinges on a self-reinforcing model: issuing equity and perpetual preferred shares to fund Bitcoin purchases, then monetizing its holdings via covered call options [3]. Yet this strategy now faces a critical inflection point.

The company’s stock price has plummeted 54% since mid-2025, compressing its “Bitcoin premium”—the ratio of market cap to Bitcoin holdings—from over 8x to just 2x [1]. This collapse reflects growing skepticism about the sustainability of its capital structure. To raise $3.7 billion for Bitcoin acquisitions, Metaplanet has issued over 555 million new shares, ballooning its total outstanding shares to 1.27 billion [4]. While preferred shares offering 6% annual dividends have attracted yield-seeking investors, the dilution has eroded shareholder value, with Bitcoin’s per-share yield dropping from 309.8% in Q4 2024 to 30.7% in Q3 2025 [2].

Bitcoin’s volatility further strains the model. A 30% price drop in Q3 2025 wiped ¥124 million from Metaplanet’s valuation and reduced its over-collateralization ratio—a metric measuring Bitcoin’s value relative to liabilities—to 18.67x [1]. While this remains above the 10x threshold for solvency, the margin for error is narrowing. The company’s reliance on Bitcoin-collateralized instruments to stabilize liquidity adds complexity, as does its plan to inject $5 billion into its U.S. subsidiary to accelerate acquisitions [5].

Japan’s regulatory environment, including a proposed 20% flat tax on crypto gains, offers some tailwinds [1]. However, the FSA’s 2026 classification of digital assets as formal financial products could introduce new compliance costs. Meanwhile, the firm’s revenue is increasingly lopsided: Bitcoin-related activities accounted for 91% of Q2 2025 revenue [2], leaving little diversification to buffer against market shocks.

The flywheel is spinning backward. Metaplanet’s aggressive accumulation has created a paradox: the more Bitcoin it buys, the more it must dilute shareholders to fund further purchases, which in turn depresses its stock price and Bitcoin premium. This dynamic mirrors MicroStrategy’s early struggles but with higher stakes, as Metaplanet’s entire business model depends on Bitcoin’s price action [1].

For now, shareholder support remains strong, with governance updates approving perpetual preferred shares and virtual meetings [4]. Yet the long-term viability of this strategy hinges on Bitcoin’s ability to outperform traditional assets and absorb the company’s massive buying pressure. If Bitcoin’s price stagnates or reverses, Metaplanet’s capital-raising model could collapse under its own weight—a flywheel in reverse.

Source:[1] Metaplanet Stock Falls 54% as Bitcoin Funding Strategy Faces Crisis [https://coincentral.com/metaplanet-stock-falls-54-as-bitcoin-fundraising-strategy-faces-crisis/][2] Metaplanet Expands Bitcoin Treasury to 20000 BTC in ... [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604944953][3] Metaplanet plans to raise additional $3.7B to buy Bitcoin [https://cointelegraph.com/news/metaplanet-raise-3-7b-buy-bitcoin][4] Bitcoin Strategy Deepens As Metaplanet Plans $880 ... [https://www.mitrade.com/insights/shares-analysis/Others/bitcoinist-BTCUSD-202508281552]