Meta's Smart Glasses Sales Triple, Aiming for 10 Million Units by 2026

Smart glasses are transitioning from a technological concept to a consumer electronics category with significant commercial potential. Driven by AI functionalities, Meta Platforms' smart glasses are entering a crucial phase of commercialization and are expected to reach a tipping point for mass market adoption by 2026. This transition is anticipated to open a new growth path for Meta, moving beyond its traditional advertising business.

Market optimism surrounding Meta's AI glasses strategy is growing. This assessment is based on interactions with Meta's former AR/VR product management senior director and the production expansion plans of Meta's partner, EssilorLuxottica. EssilorLuxottica is preparing to increase the annual production capacity of Meta glasses to 10 million units by the end of 2026 to meet the anticipated demand surge.

The report compares the potential adoption curve of smart glasses to the explosive growth of smartwatches and wireless earphones, suggesting a similar trajectory of success in the coming years. Data indicates that the sales of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses tripled in the first half of 2025.

“We believe that with the advent of super intelligence driving a broader transformation of internet experiences, smart glasses, as a natural extension of AI, are currently in the midst of their second wave of adoption,” analysts wrote in the report.

According to the former AR/VR product management senior director, the adoption of smart glasses will go through three core stages or waves. The market is currently in the second stage. The first stage involves "hands-free moments," such as taking photos and videos via voice commands. This functionality has been widely adopted since the release of the Ray-Ban Meta glasses in September 2023.

The second stage is "AI-driven experiences," which is the core of making the glasses "smart." Although functionalities powered by the Llama large model are already available, the report suggests that the exploration of providing core AI use cases through the glasses is still in its early stages. This highlights the importance of deeply integrating hardware with foundational models like Llama.

The third stage is "digital overlay," which has just begun. The launch of the Meta Ray-Ban Display glasses on September 30, along with the potential for building AI interactive experiences with a heads-up display on the lenses, signals the arrival of this stage. The report states that with the release of the second-generation smart glasses, Meta has "solidly entered the second stage," which may last for several years.

The report aligns with the former AR/VR product management senior director's assessment that smart glasses are about 12 to 24 months away from mainstream adoption. Their adoption path is seen as similar to that of Apple's Apple Watch and AirPods.

Historical data shows that smartwatches and wireless earphones experienced significant growth in the second to fifth years after their launch. However, while smart glasses have the long-term potential to replace smartphones, their short-term adoption faces challenges. The former AR/VR product management senior director noted that product pricing may need to be further reduced to accelerate adoption.

Market demand is heating up. A consumer survey indicates that approximately 12% of respondents plan to purchase Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, while the current ownership rate is around 5%. Based on this, analysts predict that by 2030, smart glasses will contribute approximately 3.7 billion euros to EssilorLuxottica's revenue, accounting for about 10% of its total sales, while the revenue from this category in 2024 is expected to be less than 300 million euros.

Hardware challenges and competitive landscape: Meta's first-mover advantage. The report identifies three major hardware constraints that could impact the widespread adoption of smart glasses: appearance, battery life, and weight. The former AR/VR product management senior director mentioned that 50 grams might be the maximum weight users can tolerate.

While the latest second-generation Ray-Ban Meta glasses have doubled their battery life to about 6-8 hours compared to the previous model, the report suggests that a complete augmented reality (AR) experience may require all-day battery life. As more AI functionalities are added, the hardware may still feel bulky in the short term.

In terms of the competitive landscape, the report states that Meta has been leading its competitors for several years and is defining this category. However, competition is intensifying.