Meta’s Options Signal a Bullish Battle at $700: Here’s How to Play the AI-Driven Rebound

• META’s price dropped 1.65% to $646.09, trading below its 200D MA of $671.33 but above key support at $608.65.
• Call open interest dominates at $690–$700 strikes, while puts cluster at $600–$640, signaling a bullish bias ahead of expiry.
• Block trades like META20260116C770 ($2.37M) hint at long-term conviction in AI monetization, despite near-term volatility.

Here’s the takeaway: Meta’s options market is betting on a rebound above $690, but technicals and news suggest a bumpy path. The stock shows upside potential if it breaks out of its Bollinger Band range, but risks a pullback toward $600 support.

The OTM Options Playbook: Calls vs. Puts in the Crosshairs

Let’s start with the numbers. This Friday’s options chain is packed with call open interest at $690 (OI: 13,693) and $700 (OI: 10,291), while puts cluster at $600 (OI: 4,472). Next Friday’s data amplifies this: $700 calls (OI: 18,171) and $1,000 calls (OI: 15,054) dominate, dwarfing put activity. The put/call ratio of 0.576 (calls > puts) isn’t just a number—it’s a crowd of traders betting on a rebound.

But don’t ignore the risks. The $600 puts (OI: 12,506 next Friday) and oddball $300 puts (OI: 9,534) suggest some hedging or speculative bearishness. The block trades, like the $2.37M bet on META20260116C770, signal big players are eyeing a 2026 rally. However, the recent sell calls (e.g., META20251121C780) hint at profit-taking or short-term skepticism.

News That Could Fuel the Fire (or Douse It)

Meta’s pivot to closed AI models like Avocado is both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, monetizing AI could unlock new revenue streams—investors love that. On the other, the shift from open-source has already dented the stock, and internal clashes between Alexandr Wang’s TBD Lab and veterans like Chris Cox add uncertainty.

The leaked VR price hike memo complicates things further. While premium pricing might stabilize Meta’s hardware business, it risks alienating consumers. But here’s the kicker: if Avocado’s launch in 2026 is successful, the stock could surge past $700. The options data already reflects this possibility—traders are pricing in a future where AI, not ads, drives growth.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

For options:

• Bullish Play: Buy META20251219C690 (next Friday’s $690 call). With OI at 18,171, this strike is a magnet for momentum. If META breaks above its 200D MA ($671.33) and holds the $644 intraday low, this call could capitalize on a rebound toward $700.
• Bearish Hedge: A put spread (e.g., sell META20251219P640 and buy META20251219P600) could lock in premium while capping downside risk. The $640–$600 range aligns with Bollinger Band support and recent block trade activity.

For stock:

• Entry near $644 (intraday low) if RSI (70.63) corrects below 60. Target $670–$680 if MACD (-0.93) crosses above its signal line.
• Stop-loss below $627 (middle Bollinger Band) to avoid a breakdown into $608 support.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Reality

The next two weeks will test Meta’s resolve. A breakout above $680 could validate the bullish case, while a close below $620 might force a reevaluation of AI strategy. The key is patience: the block trades and next-Friday options suggest this isn’t a short-term trade. If Avocado delivers on its promises, Meta’s $700+ calls could become a reality. But for now, the stock is dancing between innovation and execution—watch the options, and you’ll see where the crowd’s money is.