Meta’s Options Signal $650 Bull Call Battle: How Whales Are Positioning for AI Infrastructure Volatility

• Meta (META) trades at $623.83, up 1.35% with volume surging past 7.5M shares.
• Options data shows 1.75M call open interest vs. 1.04M puts, with heavy call OI at $650–$700 strikes.
• Block trades reveal a $320-lot put buy at $580 (expiring April 2026) and a $112-lot call at $600 (same expiry).

Here’s the takeaway: Meta’s options market is locked in a tug-of-war between short-term bearishness and long-term AI optimism. The stock sits just below its 30-day moving average ($653.94) but above the 200-day line ($675.32), creating a tight squeeze. With RSI at 26.14 and MACD in negative territory, technicals hint at a near-term pullback—but the options data tells a different story. Bulls are stacking up calls at $650–$700, while bears are hedging at $600–$620. The question isn’t whether Meta will move—it’s how it’ll move.

The $650 Call Wall and April Block Trade Signals

Let’s start with the OTM options. This Friday’s call open interest peaks at $650 ($18,179 contracts) and $700 ($34,046), while puts cluster at $600 ($14,825) and $620 ($9,599). Next Friday’s data shows a tighter call focus at $650–$680, suggesting near-term bullish positioning. The put/call ratio of 0.596 (calls dominate) isn’t just a number—it’s a crowd-sourced bet on upside potential.

But here’s the twist: a massive block trade on April 17th saw 320 puts bought at $580 (META20260417P580), worth $689,600. That’s not just hedging—it’s a hedge with teeth. Meanwhile, a $112-lot call at $600 (META20260417C600) hints at long-term bullishness. These moves suggest whales are preparing for a volatile Q1 but remain confident in Meta’s AI-driven recovery by midyear.

News Flow: Burry’s Bear Case vs. Zuckerberg’s AI Bet

Michael Burry’s recent warning—that Meta’s $600B AI infrastructure push will crush returns—has clearly rattled investors. The ICE raid on a Louisiana data center adds regulatory risk, while Reality Labs’ $70B in losses since 2020 raises execution doubts. Yet the Wikipedia partnership and Meta Compute’s $100B+ 2026 capex plans show the company’s all-in on AI.

The market’s split: bears see a cash-burning machine, bulls see a strategic pivot to control AI monetization. The options data leans with the bulls—for now. But don’t ignore Burry’s point: if Meta’s free cash flow turns negative, the $600–$620 support levels could crumble faster than expected.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Conviction, Puts for Caution

For options traders, the most compelling setup is the META20260123C650 call (expiring Friday, Jan 23). With the stock trading at $623.83, a break above the Bollinger Upper Band ($679.58) could trigger a rally toward $650. If you’re bullish but cautious, consider a call spread: buy the $650 call and sell the $700 call to reduce cost.

On the stock side, watch for a test of the $628.23 Bollinger Lower Band. If it holds, consider entry near $628 with a target at $650. For downside protection, the META20260123P610 put (next Friday expiry) offers a floor at $610, which aligns with the 30-day support level.

Volatility on the Horizon

Meta’s options market is a chessboard of conflicting narratives: short-term bearish technicals, long-term AI optimism, and regulatory headwinds. The key takeaway? Position yourself for a $650–$700 breakout if the stock holds above $628, but keep a tight stop below $610. The block trades and OTM call dominance suggest this isn’t just noise—it’s a setup.

In the end, Meta’s story isn’t just about AI infrastructure. It’s about whether the market believes Zuckerberg can turn a capital-intensive gamble into a cash-flow engine. For now, the options crowd’s betting on a comeback. Will you follow?