Meta’s Options Imbalance and $700 Call Frenzy: A Bullish Play or Bear Trap?

• META’s price slumped 0.9% to $650.93, trading below its 30D MA but above key support at $611.90.
• Options market shows a 0.58 put/call OI ratio, with $700 calls (next Friday expiry) leading the charge.
• Block trades hint at hedging by big players, including a $2.37M bet on META20260116C770.

Here’s the thing: Meta’s options market is screaming about a battle between bulls and bears, but the data leans decisively toward a breakout. Let’s break it down.

The Call-Put OI Showdown and Whale Moves

The options chain is a goldmine of sentiment. For this Friday’s expiry, $690 and $700 calls dominate with 13,693 and 10,291 OI respectively—nearly double the top puts ($600 OI: 4,472). Next Friday’s expiry amplifies this: $700 calls surge to 18,171 OI, while puts like $600 (12,506 OI) pale in comparison. This isn’t just bullish—it’s a stampede toward $700 as a psychological threshold.

But don’t ignore the block trades. A $2.37M bet on META20260116C770 (strike $770) suggests long-term conviction, while recent sell calls (e.g., META20251121C780) hint at profit-taking or hedging. The risk? If Meta stumbles below $608.65 support, those bullish calls could turn into a fire sale.

News That Could Fuel or Dampen the Fire

Meta’s AI pivot to a closed "Avocado" model and $14.3B talent war are bold—but so is its underperformance vs OpenAI and Google. The VR price hike and slower hardware cycles signal a retreat from moonshot bets, which could stabilize the stock… or frustrate growth investors. Here’s the kicker: the AI-publisher partnerships might juice user engagement, but the market is already pricing in a Q1 2026 Avocado launch. If delays hit, that $700 call premium could evaporate fast.

Your Playbook: Calls, Stock, and Where to Draw the Line

For options traders: META20251219C700 (next Friday expiry) is your best bet. With 18,171 OI and Meta trading just 7% below the strike, a rebound to $680+ would juice this call’s value. If you’re bearish but cautious, META20251219P600 (12,506 OI) offers downside protection without overpaying.

For stock players: Buy near $611.90 (30D support) with a tight stop below $608.65. Your target? The upper Bollinger Band at $680.81. But if Meta cracks $647.31 intraday low, bail—fast.

Volatility on the Horizon

Meta’s at a crossroads. The options market is pricing in a rally, but the stock’s 200D MA ($671.33) and 100D MA ($711.96) still loom as hurdles. The AI gamble could pay off, but don’t let FOMO blind you to the risks. Keep a tight leash on your positions—this isn’t a holding pattern, it’s a high-stakes sprint.

Bottom line: The data says go, but the road to $700 is littered with speed bumps. Stay nimble, and you might just ride the wave.