Meta (META) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for 2026

• META trades at $656.1, down 1.08% from $663.29, with Bollinger Bands suggesting a potential rebound near $636.50.
• Call open interest dominates at $675 and $700 strikes, while puts cluster at $650 and $630, signaling mixed near-term sentiment.
• A $770 call block trade (META20260116C770) hints at institutional bullishness ahead of the January 16 expiration.

Here’s the takeaway: Meta’s options market is leaning bullish, but technicals and news suggest a volatile start to 2026. The stock shows upside potential if it breaks above $675, but downside risks linger near $630. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Sentiment in Options, But Caution at Key Levels

The options chain tells a story of cautious optimism. For this Friday’s expiration (Jan 2), call open interest peaks at $675 (OI: 8,375) and $665 (OI: 6,354), while puts cluster at $650 (OI: 3,261) and $630 (OI: 3,107). This suggests traders are hedging for a rebound but bracing for a potential pullback. The put/call ratio of 0.58 (favoring calls) reinforces the bullish tilt.

But don’t ignore the risks. The $630–$640 range is a critical support zone. If META breaks below $630, the next target could be $620, where puts have significant open interest. On the upside, the $675 strike is a psychological hurdle. A close above this level could trigger a cascade of call options expiring in the money, pushing the stock toward $700.

Block trades add intrigue. The META20260116C770 call (400 contracts traded for $2.37M) suggests big players are betting on a sharp rally by January 16. This strike is 9% above the current price—a bold move that could signal confidence in Meta’s AI-driven growth narrative.

News Flow: AI Optimism vs. Capex Concerns

Meta’s recent news is a mixed bag. On one hand, AI investments and a 38% stake boost by Milestone Asset Management highlight long-term optimism. The company’s Q3 beat (revenue up 26.2%) and focus on open-source models like Avocado and Mango position it as a key player in the AI race. Analysts are even penciling in a $900 price target by 2026.

On the flip side, insider sales and $40B+ in 2026 capex have traders on edge. The December 15 insider sales ($334K and $375K) were routine, but they coincided with year-end profit-taking, amplifying the selloff. Meanwhile, worries about AI spending echoing 2021’s metaverse fiasco linger. This duality—AI optimism vs. capital caution—could keep the stock range-bound until earnings clarity emerges.

Actionable Trade Setups: Calls for Bulls, Puts for Cautious Bears

For bulls, the META20260102C675 call (expiring Jan 2) is a high-conviction play. With $675 near the upper Bollinger Band ($675.09), a breakout here could trigger a rally toward $700. If you prefer a safer bet, consider a bull call spread: buy the META20260102C665 (OI: 6,354) and sell the META20260102C700 (OI: 5,796) to cap risk. Both strikes align with key OI clusters.

For bears, the META20260102P650 put (OI: 3,261) offers downside protection. If META dips below $655.79 (middle Bollinger Band), this strike could act as a floor. Alternatively, the META20260109P630 (OI: 1,071) is a longer-term hedge for next Friday’s expiration.

Stock traders should watch $646–$648 (30D support) and $675 (resistance). A rebound above $675 could target $700, while a breakdown below $630 might test $620. Use tight stops: $650 for longs, $635 for shorts.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Reality

Meta’s path in 2026 hinges on execution. The AI bets are bold, but so are the risks. If the company can monetize open-source models and smart glasses without blowing through cash, the $900 target feels plausible. But if capex overruns or regulatory hurdles emerge, the stock could retest $600.

For now, the options market is pricing in a bullish bias, but traders should stay nimble. Use the $675 call OI as a guide for upside momentum, and keep an eye on the $630 put cluster for early warning signs of a deeper selloff. The next few weeks will tell whether Meta’s AI gamble pays off—or if history repeats itself.