Meta (META) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and AI-Driven Trade Setup

• Meta’s price action shows a -0.47% dip but holds above its 30-day moving average at $631.11.
• Options data reveals a 0.60 put/call open interest ratio, with heavy call buying at the $700 strike and block trades hinting at institutional bullishness.
• Recent news about Meta’s AI investments and subscription monetization aligns with options sentiment, but margin pressures could test resolve.

Here’s the core insight: Meta’s options market is pricing in a near-term upside breakout, with technicals and news reinforcing a cautious bullish case. The stock shows upside potential if it clears key resistance but carries downside risk if AI spending overruns or user backlash materializes.

Bullish Sentiment at $700, Bearish Caution at $600

The options chain tells a clear story. For this Friday’s expiration, calls at the $700 strike dominate open interest (18,435 contracts), while puts at $600 lead puts (15,634 OI). This imbalance suggests traders are hedging against a rally but bracing for a pullback. The put/call ratio of 0.60 (calls outweighing puts) reinforces bullish bias, though the heavy put OI at $600 signals a psychological floor many expect to hold.

Block trades add intrigue. A $2.37 million bet on the META20260116C770 call (expiring Jan 16, 2026) hints at long-term conviction. Meanwhile, large sell calls at $780 and $800 (expiring Nov 21) suggest some profit-taking by institutions. The takeaway? Big players are buying time for a rally but selling near-term premium at higher strikes.

News Flow: AI Growth vs. Margin Pressures

Meta’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The company’s plan to charge business pages for link posts could boost subscription revenue, aligning with the options market’s bullish tilt. Analysts also highlight $71 billion in AI capex and a $50 billion buyback as tailwinds. But the same news warns of declining link engagement (9.8% reach in 2022) and potential user alienation—risks that could pressure shares if execution falters.

Investor perception is key here. If Meta’s AI-driven ad personalization pays off, the $700+ calls could soar. But if margins compress from AI spending or regulatory pushback intensifies, the $600–$620 put-heavy zone might see a test. The market is pricing in growth but betting on a controlled rollout.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls, Breakouts, and Strategic Puts

For options traders, the META20251226C700 call (expiring Dec 26) stands out. With 9,972 contracts in open interest, this strike offers leverage if Meta breaks above its intraday high of $661.23. A tighter setup: buy the META20251226C660 call (4,590 OI) if the stock holds above $648 (30-day support). Both strikes offer 30–40% upside if Meta’s AI narrative gains traction.

Stock traders should watch $648.14 (30-day support) and $671.02 (200-day resistance). Consider entry near $648 if support holds, with a target at $689.07 (Bollinger Upper Band). A stop-loss below $637.01 (middle band) would protect against a breakdown. For bears, a put spread at $600–$620 could profit if sentiment flips, but the odds favor a rebound.

Volatility on the Horizon

The coming weeks will test Meta’s resolve. A breakout above $671.02 (200-day MA) could validate the bullish case, while a close below $637.01 (middle Bollinger) might trigger a deeper pullback. The options market is pricing in a $700+ move by early 2026, but near-term volatility will hinge on earnings, AI progress, and user sentiment. Stay nimble—this stock is dancing on a tightrope between innovation and execution risk.