Meta (META) Options Signal Bullish Bias Amid $730–$800 Imbalance: Strategic Entry Points for Upcoming Volatility

• Meta’s stock (META) trades at $743.77, down 0.69% from its 52-week high of $751.93, with short-term bearish momentum conflicting against long-term bullish trends.
• Options data reveals a 0.68 put/call open interest ratio, with heavy call OI at $800 and put OI at $730, signaling aggressive bullish positioning ahead of key AI-driven catalysts.
• Block trades totaling $3.1M in call options (e.g., META20260116C770) suggest institutional confidence in a potential $770+ breakout by early 2026.

Meta’s options market is painting a clear picture of asymmetric bullish bias, with open interest skewed toward high-strike calls and a put/call imbalance favoring long-dated volatility. While technical indicators like RSI (48.33) and MACD (-1.60) hint at near-term consolidation, the broader narrative is one of upside potential driven by AI infrastructure bets and product launches. Traders must balance this with near-term support/resistance levels and regulatory risks outlined in recent news.

Strike-Level Imbalance and Whale Moves: A Playbook for Volatility

The options chain for META shows a stark divergence between call and put open interest. For Friday’s expirations, $800 calls (OI: 10,747) and $730 puts (OI: 3,553) dominate, creating a $70-wide “bull trap” between these strikes. This suggests traders are pricing in a 10%+ move higher or a 5%+ drop, with the former scenario favored. The 0.68 put/call ratio (calls: 1.19M, puts: 812K) reinforces this, as institutional players are overloading the upper end of the volatility spectrum.

Notable block trades add context. The META20260116C770 call block ($2.37M turnover) and META20251121C780 sell-off ($1.23M) indicate large players are either accumulating long-dated calls or hedging short-term bullish exposure. These moves align with Meta’s $1.5B Ohio data center expansion and AI supercluster ambitions, which require sustained equity strength to fund. However, the $500 put (OI: 7,003) next week’s expirations hints at a small but growing bearish contingent, likely hedging against regulatory headwinds.

AI Infrastructure and Regulatory Risks: Fuel for the Bull Case

Meta’s recent news flow is a mixed bag for options strategists. The Ohio Prometheus supercluster and Hyperion AI project validate its $10B+ infrastructure spending, which could drive revenue growth in 2026. The Vibes AI video platform and Ray-Ban Display glasses also position Meta to monetize AI-driven content creation and wearables—a $1.2T market by 2030. These catalysts justify the call-heavy options positioning.

However, risks persist. The Louisiana power plant deal’s NDAs and potential ratepayer burden could spark regulatory backlash, while the CrushAI lawsuit highlights ethical concerns around AI misuse. Traders must weigh these against Meta’s aggressive lobbying via the American Technology Excellence Project, which aims to shape favorable AI policies. The key takeaway: bullish options bets are justified by growth narratives, but downside risks remain priced in.

Actionable Trade Setups: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Hedging

For options traders, the $800 call (Friday’s $800 strike) offers a high-risk/high-reward play if Meta breaks above its 30D MA ($757.68). A $743.77 entry with a stop below $738.12 (30D support) targets $780–$800, where heavy OI could trigger a gamma squeeze. For a safer bet, the $770 call (next Friday’s $770 strike) provides a 4.9% buffer to current price, with a $750–$760 entry range.

Stock traders should consider buying dips near $737.35 (intraday low) if the 200D MA ($663.92) holds. A breakout above $751.93 (intraday high) would validate the long-term bullish trend. For hedging, a put spread at $730–$740 could limit downside risk if the Ohio project faces delays.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Optimism and Execution Risks

Meta’s options market is a microcosm of the broader AI hype cycle. While the $800 call OI and block trades suggest a 10%+ move is priced in, execution risks—like energy costs for data centers or regulatory pushback—could cap upside. Traders should monitor the Bollinger Band lower bound ($730.10) and RSI divergence for early signs of a reversal. The key is to stay nimble: use the current bullish bias to scale into calls but maintain a short-term bearish hedge given the mixed technicals. With Meta’s AI roadmap and product launches in play, the next 30 days could define its 2025 trajectory.