Meta (META) Options Signal Bullish Bias at $700 Strike: Here’s How to Play the AI-Driven Rebound

• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $700 and $680 strikes for Friday expiration, while puts cluster at $630 and $660.
• Technical indicators hint at a short-term bullish trend, but long-term range-bound pressure from 200D MA at $672.
• Block trades suggest big money is positioning for a 2026 rebound, with $770 call options seeing $2.37M turnover.

Meta’s stock is trading at $665.51, down 0.3% from its open, but the options market tells a different story. Call open interest is 1.7 million contracts, nearly double the put volume, with the $700 strike leading the pack. This isn’t just noise—it’s a signal. Traders are pricing in a potential breakout above $668.95 (today’s high) and a test of the 200D MA at $672. Let’s break down what’s really happening here.

Bullish Bets and Bearish Safeguards: What Options Reveal

The call-heavy options chain screams optimism. For Friday expiration, 11,091 contracts are open at the $700 strike, and 10,532 at $680. That’s not just retail FOMO—block trades like META20260116C770 ($2.37M turnover) suggest institutional players are hedging or speculating on a 2026 rebound. But don’t ignore the puts: 6,034 contracts at $630 and 5,053 at $660 hint at cautious positioning. The 0.58 put/call ratio (based on open interest) confirms the market is leaning bullish, but the $630 puts could act as a safety net if AI capex worries resurface.

News vs. Options: Can Meta’s AI Play Deliver?

Meta’s $70–72 billion AI capex has investors split. On one hand, third-quarter profits dropped 82.7%—that’s painful. On the other, analysts like Morgan Stanley’s Brian Nowak see 31% EPS growth in 2026 if the AI stack (Lattice, Avocado, etc.) pays off. The block trades align with this view: big money is buying time. The $770 call expiring Jan 16, 2026 (META20260116C770) suggests confidence in Zuckerberg’s smart-glass vision. But Reality Labs’ $18–19 billion annual losses are a drag—don’t assume this story plays out smoothly.

Actionable Trades: Calls, Puts, and Price Levels to Watch

For options traders: Buy the $680 call expiring Jan 2, 2026 (META20260102C680). Why? The strike is just 2.2% above current price, and the 200D MA at $672 is a psychological hurdle. If META breaks $668.95 (today’s high) and holds above $664.81 (intraday low), this call could catch fire. For the stock: Consider entry near $665 if support at $654.31 (middle Bollinger Band) holds. Target $680 first, then $700. If the price drops below $654.31, sell the $660 put expiring Jan 2, 2026 (META20260102P660) to hedge downside.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Capex Realities

Meta’s future hinges on whether its AI bets translate to profits. The $700 call wall and block trades imply a 2026 rally is priced in, but 2025 is a minefield. Capex costs, Reality Labs’ losses, and a forward P/E of 22.69 (discount to peers) mean volatility is inevitable. For now, the technicals and options data favor a short-term rebound—but don’t bet the farm. This is a high-conviction play for those who believe Meta’s AI roadmap will outperform its cash-burning present.