Meta (META) Options Signal Aggressive Bullish Bets at $750 as Bears Target $650: Here’s How to Play the AI-Driven Rebound

• META’s price dropped 1.4% to $660.68, trading below its 30D, 100D, and 200D moving averages.
• Call open interest dominates (1.5M vs. 956K puts), with heavy concentration at $750 and $700 strikes.
• Block trades show a $400K bet on the April $680 call and a $102K put at $630 expiring Friday.
• Analysts upgraded price targets to $800–$900 after Q4 earnings, but AI spending risks weigh on margins.

The options market is sending a mixed signal: Bears are hedging at $650 support, while bulls are stacking up at $750, betting on Meta’s AI-driven rebound. Let’s break down what this means for traders today.Bullish Calls at $750 vs. Bearish Puts at $650: A Battle for Control

The options chain tells a story of two camps. For this Friday’s expirations, the META20260213C750 call has 6,154 open contracts—the highest on the board—while the META20260213P650 put has 4,582. This suggests big money is pricing in a sharp rebound above $750 or a breakdown below $650.

But here’s the twist: The Bollinger Bands show the stock is trading near the lower band ($585.42), which could act as a short-term floor. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram (2.63) hints at fading bullish momentum. The block trade on the META20260417C680 call—$1.01M in volume—signals long-term conviction in Meta’s AI roadmap, but it’s a longer-term play.

News Flow: AI Spending vs. Layoffs—Which Story Wins?

Meta’s $135B AI capex plan and upgraded analyst targets ($800–$900) are bullish, but the recent 10% Reality Labs cut and safety research cuts add risk. Traders are pricing in a “rebound through execution” narrative: Can Meta offset margin pressure from AI spending with ad growth? The options data leans yes—for now.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Breakout, Puts for the Breakdown

1. Bullish Play: Buy the META20260213C700 call if the stock breaks above $665.79 (30D MA). Target: $700 strike if the RSI (60.75) crosses 65.
2. Bearish Play: Buy the META20260213P650 put if the price dips below $646.50 (intraday low). Stop loss: $657.92 (middle Bollinger Band).
3. Stock Entry: Consider buying META near $657.92 if support holds, with a target at $685.05 (200D MA).

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Operational Risks

Meta’s story is a tug-of-war between AI optimism and near-term margin pressures. The options market is pricing in a 62.5% put/call ratio—bearish sentiment is present but not extreme. If the stock holds above $646.50, the path of least resistance tilts bullish. But watch for a breakdown below $630 (200D support), which could trigger a test of the $585.42 lower Bollinger level.

Final Take: Today’s options activity and technicals suggest a volatile week ahead. Bulls are stacking up at $700–$750, while bears are hedging at $650. For traders, the key is to align with the most liquid contracts—like the META20260213C700—and manage risk with tight stops. Meta’s AI-driven rebound isn’t a sure thing, but the options market is giving us a playbook to navigate the chaos.