Meta (META) Options Signal $700 Call Contention as AI Pivot Drives Volatility – Here’s How to Play It

• META plunges 1.5% to $642.77, breaking below its 30D MA but holding above the 200D MA
• Options market shows 0.58 put/call OI ratio, with $700 calls (next Friday expiry) leading the charge
• Block trades hint at $770 call buying ahead of Q1 2026

Here’s the thing: Meta’s options market is screaming about a $700 inflection point. With the stock trading in a 200D MA–defined range and AI-driven optimism colliding with metaverse skepticism, today’s $642.77 price tag feels like a crossroads. The data says this isn’t just noise—it’s a setup.

The $700 Call Wall and Whale Moves

Let’s start with the elephant in the room: 18,699 open $700 calls expire Dec 19. That’s more than double the next-largest call strike ($1,000). Why? Because $700 sits just above the 100D MA (710.81) and within striking distance of the 200D resistance zone (747–753). Big money’s betting Meta’s AI pivot could push it there.

But don’t ignore the puts. While the put/call OI ratio is skewed bullish (0.58), the $630 put (7,750 OI) acts as a quiet floor. If the stock cracks 638.61 (today’s low), watch for a test of the 589–591 support cluster. The block trades add intrigue too—400 contracts of the META20260116C770 call traded for $2.37M. That’s a whale hedging a Q1 2026 rally or front-running AI hype.

AI Pivot Validates Options Sentiment

Meta’s 30% metaverse budget cut isn’t just cost-cutting—it’s a lifeline. The stock’s 3.5% pop on the news shows investors are buying the AI story. Morgan Stanley’s $750 price target (down from $820) still sees upside, but the $4.7B Q3 Reality Labs loss is a reminder: this isn’t a clean pivot. Internal fights between core social media teams and the TBD Lab’s AI moonshots? That’s execution risk no model can fully price.

The VR price hikes and slower hardware cycles add another layer. If Meta’s shifting from "build it and they will come" to "charge more for less frequent updates," that could alienate Quest users. But for options traders? Volatility is your friend. The $700 call wall and $630 put floor create a tight trading range—perfect for directional bets with defined risks.

Trade Ideas: Calls for Conviction, Puts for Caution

For the bullish: Buy the META20251219C700 call if Meta breaks above 685.34 (Bollinger Upper Band). Target: 700–720. Why? The 700 strike has 18,699 OI waiting for a spark, and the 200D resistance (747–753) could become a gravity well if AI hype accelerates.

For the bearish: Short the META20251219P630 put if Meta holds above 638.61. The 630 strike has 7,750 OI, but the 589–591 support cluster is a better long-term floor. Exit if the stock reclaims 650.

Stock play: Buy META near $590.84 (30D support) with a stop below 585. Target: 753.36 (200D resistance). If it breaks 638.61 intraday, consider a fade near 630–635.

Volatility on the Horizon

Meta’s at a crossroads. The options market’s $700 call wall and AI-driven news flow suggest a bullish freight train—if the execution matches the ambition. But with Reality Labs’ $70B loss still fresh and internal fractures exposed, this isn’t a one-way bet. Your edge? Play the range. Buy the 700 call for a breakout play, short the 630 put if the stock holds, and keep an eye on that 200D resistance. In this market, volatility isn’t the enemy—it’s the opportunity.