Meta (META) Options Signal $700 Call Contention Amid AI-Driven Rebound Play

• META trades at $645.78, down 0.67% from $650.13, with RSI near overbought (70.9) and MACD (-0.62) hinting at short-term bearish pressure.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $690–$700 (expiring Friday) and $700–$1000 (next Friday), while puts cluster at $600–$630.
• Block trades include a $2.37M bet on META20260116C770 and large sell calls at $780–$800, suggesting strategic positioning ahead of Q4 earnings.

The options market is whispering a tug-of-war between AI optimism and VR pessimism. While Meta’s shares dip slightly today, the call/put open interest ratio (0.58) leans bullish—traders are clearly pricing in a potential rebound. But here’s the twist: the $700 strike is the gravitational center of this battle. Let’s break it down.The $700 Call Wall and Institutional Chess Moves

If you squint at the options chain, the $700 call (OI: 18,395 for next Friday) is the elephant in the room. That’s not just retail noise—it’s a magnet for big money. This strike sits just above the 100D MA ($711) and below the 200D MA ($671), making it a psychological sweet spot. Meanwhile, the $690–$670 calls (OI: 13,270–10,082) suggest a secondary line of defense if the $700 level cracks.

On the put side, $600–$630 OI (13,202–7,503) signals a floor near the 30D support ($608–$612). But here’s the rub: the block trade selling $780–$800 calls (totaling $1.88M) hints at hedging by short-term bulls. It’s like watching a boxer tie up their hands—Meta’s AI bets are their jab, but VR losses are the telltale wobble.

AI Alliances vs. VR Price Cuts: Which Story Wins?

Meta’s news flow is a mixed bag. On one hand, partnering with Alibaba’s Qwen and paying news publishers for AI training data shows they’re doubling down on AI’s revenue potential. Morgan Stanley’s $1,000 bull-case target isn’t just wishful thinking—those Blackwell-trained models could unlock new margins.

But the VR price hikes and $73B in Reality Labs losses? That’s a credibility hit. Raising prices on Quest 3 headsets in a shrinking market is like charging more for a sinking ship’s lifeboats. The 30% budget cut for 2026? That’s not just belt-tightening—it’s a signal that VR isn’t the growth engine they once thought.

Trade Ideas: Play the $700 Call Contention

For options traders, the META20251212C690 (this Friday) and META20251219C700 (next Friday) are your best bets. If Meta closes above $690 today, the $700 call becomes a high-probability play. Entry near $685–$690 with a target at $710 (200D MA) and a stop below $675 makes sense. For the stock, consider entries near $628 (middle Bollinger Band) if support holds, with a first target at $650 and a stretch at $670.

Volatility on the Horizon

Meta’s story is a seesaw between AI’s upside and VR’s drag. The options market is pricing in a $700 pivot—get there before the Q4 earnings report (Dec 19) and AI model updates. If the $700 call wall holds, this could be the spark for a 2026 re-rating. But if VR cuts bite harder than expected, the $600–$630 puts could become a lifeline. Either way, the next two weeks will tell if Meta’s AI gamble pays off—or if the VR train is leaving the station for good.