Meta (META) Options Signal $700 Bullish Bias: How to Position for AI-Driven Volatility

• META trades at $647.32, down 0.88% from $653.06, with intraday support at $645.43
• Call open interest spikes at $700 strike (34,995 contracts) for Friday expiry, vs. top put OI at $600–$640
• Block trades show $710 put (680 contracts) and $650 call (600 contracts) activity ahead of March 2026

Here’s the core insight: Meta’s options market is pricing in a strong bullish bias toward $700 by Friday, despite a short-term bearish technical setup. The stock is testing 30D support at $642.37 while call options suggest conviction in a near-term rebound. Let’s break down what this means for traders.Bullish Call OI vs. Defensive Put Bets

The options chain tells two stories. First, META20260116C700 (34,995 open interest) and META20260116C750 (14,406 OI) show heavy positioning for a $700+ move by Friday. This suggests institutional players expect a short-term pop—possibly from AI infrastructure news or Powell McCormick’s strategic rollout.

But don’t ignore the puts. The META20260116P600 (14,341 OI) and META20260116P640 (10,144 OI) strikes act as a safety net. If the stock breaks below $645.43, these puts could trigger a cascade of selling pressure. The put/call ratio of 0.607 (calls dominate) reinforces the bullish tilt, but the block trade at META20260116P710 (680 contracts) hints at hidden bearish bets.

News-Driven Narrative: AI Infrastructure as a Catalyst

Meta’s recent moves—hiring Dina Powell McCormick, shifting to proprietary AI models, and building gigawatt-scale data centers—align with the call options’ optimism. Powell’s global finance expertise and the company’s $600B infrastructure pledge signal long-term confidence. But here’s the catch: the stock is currently below its 30D MA ($655.06) and 200D MA ($674.83). Short-term traders might be wary of a pullback to test the $642.37 lower Bollinger Band before the AI-driven rally materializes.

Actionable Trade Ideas

1. Options Play: Buy META20260116C700 (strike price $700, expiring Friday). Rationale: The $700 strike is the most liquid call, and a close above $680 would validate the bullish case. If the stock gaps up on Powell’s first major AI announcement, this call could see 20%+ gains.

1. Stock Play: Enter long near $642.37 (lower Bollinger Band) with a stop-loss at $635. Target: $658.29 (30D support/resistance). Why? The stock has historically bounced off this level, and a break above $659.09 (30D resistance) would trigger a retest of the $671.03 upper Bollinger Band.

1. Put Spread for Downside Protection: Sell META20260116P620 and buy META20260116P640. This credits you $1–$2 while capping risk if the stock dips below $640. The block trade at $640 puts (10,144 OI) suggests a potential floor.

Volatility on the Horizon

Meta’s options market is a chessboard of AI optimism and technical caution. The $700 call OI and block trades hint at a potential breakout by Friday, but the RSI at 42.69 and MACD histogram (-1.39) warn of lingering bearish momentum. For now, the stock is dancing between its 30D and 200D MAs—a tug-of-war between short-term profit-taking and long-term AI bets.

If you’re bullish on Meta’s AI infrastructure bets, the META20260116C700 and a long stock position near $642.37 offer clear setups. But keep an eye on the $640 level—it could be the last line of defense before the bears take control.