Meta (META) Options Signal $700 Bullish Battle: How Traders Can Position for AI-Driven Volatility and Regulatory Risks

• META trading at $667.55, up 0.39% with a bullish engulfing candle and MACD above signal line
• Call open interest surges at $700 strike (13,293 contracts) as top OTM level this Friday
• Italy’s AGCM orders Meta to suspend AI chatbot restrictions on WhatsApp, sparking regulatory uncertainty

Here’s the takeaway: Meta’s options market is pricing in a potential $700 breakout, but regulatory headwinds and heavy call selling by insiders could create a volatile tug-of-war. The stock shows clear upside potential in the short term, but traders must balance optimism with caution.

Bullish Pressure at $700, But Who’s Selling?

META’s options chain tells a story of conflicting forces. Call open interest peaks at the $700 strike (13,293 contracts) for Friday’s expiration, suggesting institutional players are hedging or positioning for a near-term pop. The put/call ratio of 0.58 (calls dominate puts) reinforces bullish sentiment. Yet block trades tell a different tale: 5,798 contracts of the META20250919C840 call were sold in September, and recent large-volume sell calls at $780 and $800 strikes hint at profit-taking or short-term bearishness. This creates a paradox—retail and institutional buyers are betting on $700+, but insiders and hedge funds are hedging against a pullback.

The Bollinger Bands (upper at $674.58) and 200D MA ($671.78) suggest the stock is testing key resistance. If it breaks above $674.58, the $700 call-heavy zone could ignite a parabolic move. But watch for a potential short squeeze: the $660 put (3,847 OI next Friday) and $630 put (2,038 OI) act as soft cushions if the news-driven selloff materializes.

Regulatory Drama vs. Analyst Optimism: A Tug-of-War for META

Italy’s AGCM order to open WhatsApp to rival AI chatbots is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it could dilute Meta’s AI monetization strategy and trigger a short-term selloff. On the other, the European Commission’s parallel probe might force Meta to adapt its AI policies, potentially unlocking new partnerships or market access. Analysts remain bullish, with 27 “Buy” ratings and a median $832.5 target—but regulatory risks are now a wildcard.

Investor perception is split: while Meta’s Q3 revenue grew 26.25% to $51.2B, CEO Zuckerberg’s $162M in insider sales (214,986 shares) raises questions about executive confidence. Yet institutional ownership remains strong at 67.2%, and hedge funds like Tiger Global are trimming stakes, suggesting a shift from aggressive bets to more measured positions.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Hedging

For bullish traders, the META20260102C675 call (next Friday’s $675 strike, 6,995 OI) offers leverage if the stock breaks above $674.58. A bull call spread using the $670 call (META20260102C670, 3,020 OI) and $700 call (META20260102C700, 5,183 OI) could cap risk while capitalizing on the $700 OI hotspot. Enter near $662.20 (intraday low) if support holds, with a target at $674.58 (upper Bollinger Band) and a stop below $652.75 (middle band).

Bearish or hedging traders might eye the META20260102P660 put (3,847 OI) as a soft floor. A risk-reversal strategy—buying the $675 call and selling the $660 put—could profit from volatility while capping downside risk. For stock players, consider scaling into long positions near $662.20 with a tight stop at $650 (20D support) and a target at $680 (call-heavy zone).

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Regulatory Headwinds

Meta’s stock is caught between two forces: AI-driven optimism and regulatory uncertainty. The options market is pricing in a $700 battle, but Italy’s AGCM order and EU investigations could create sharp dips. Traders should monitor the $674.58 upper band as a critical breakout level and watch for a potential short-covering rally if the stock holds above $652.75. In the long term, Meta’s AI investments and $832.5 analyst target suggest a bullish bias—but December’s regulatory drama could keep the ride bumpy.

Bottom line: Position for a $700 test, but hedge with puts or spreads. This is a stock where the story isn’t just about numbers—it’s about how Meta navigates the AI regulatory minefield while scaling its ad empire.