Meta (META) Options Signal $650 Bull Call Play Amid AI Pivot – Here’s How to Position for Volatility

• META trades at $625.1, up 0.69% with volume surging to 6.4M shares.
• Options call open interest dominates at $650–$700 strikes, while puts cluster near $600–$620.
• Meta’s metaverse retreat and AI push create a high-risk, high-reward setup for 2026.

Here’s the core insight: Options market sentiment is skewed bullish at key resistance levels, but technical indicators warn of short-term bearish pressure. The stock sits in a tight trading range, squeezed between its 200-day MA ($675.55) and Bollinger Band support ($622.53). Traders are betting on a breakout—or breakdown—depending on how Meta’s AI transition plays out.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

The options data tells a story of cautious optimism. For this Friday’s expirations, call open interest peaks at $650 (18,201 contracts) and $700 (33,799), while puts cluster near $600 (14,445) and $620 (8,878). The put/call ratio for open interest is just 0.589, meaning calls dominate by a 2:1 margin. This suggests positioning for a rally—but not without risks.

The most eye-catching move? A block trade of 304 contracts for META20260417C680 (April 17, 2026, $680 call) worth $706,800. That’s a whale-sized bet on a sharp rebound by mid-2026. Combine this with the heavy call OI at $650–$700, and it feels like institutional money is hedging for a post-earnings pop or AI-driven rerating.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $620 strike (8,878 OI) lines up with the lower Bollinger Band. If the stock dips below 622.53, that could trigger a wave of stop-loss orders—and a test of the 30-day support at $658.37.

Meta’s AI Pivot: Fuel for Bulls or a Short-Term Headache?

The news flow is a mixed bag. Killing Horizon Workrooms and VR fitness apps like Supernatural signals a clear pivot to AI—but also raises red flags. Investors love the long-term AI story (Meta’s recent Manus acquisition hints at agent tech), but the short-term risks are real: $100B+ in 2026 CapEx, TikTok’s ad threat, and looming lawsuits over youth addiction could weigh on sentiment.

This creates a paradox: options buyers are pricing in AI optimism, but technicals and news hint at near-term volatility. The RSI at 28 suggests oversold conditions, but the MACD (-6.44) and bearish Kline pattern warn of lingering downward pressure. Meta’s stock could gap lower if the AI transition stumbles—or surge if the market buys the long-term vision.

Actionable Trade Ideas for Today

For options traders, the most compelling plays are:

• META20260123C650 (Jan 23, $650 call): Buy if META breaks above $629.08 (intraday high). Target $680–$700 if the 200-day MA ($675.55) holds. Risk: Below $622.53 triggers a sell.
• META20260123P620 (Jan 23, $620 put): Hedge if the stock dips to 622.53–621.25. Stop loss at $630.

For stock traders, consider:

• Entry near $622.53 (lower Bollinger Band) with a target at $653.06 (30-day MA). Use the 200-day MA ($675.55) as a dynamic stop-loss.
• Short-term scalping: Buy dips above $625.1 if volume spikes and RSI crosses 30. Exit at $629.08 (intraday high).

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hope and Reality

The next two weeks will test Meta’s resolve. A breakout above $658.37 (30-day resistance) could reignite AI bullishness, while a breakdown below $622.53 might force a reevaluation of the metaverse-to-AI pivot. The block trade at $680 hints at a longer-term bet, but near-term traders should watch for earnings (Jan 30) and AI product updates.

Bottom line: This is a stock at a crossroads. The options market is pricing in a comeback, but the path won’t be smooth. Position yourself with a mix of bullish calls and defensive puts—and keep a close eye on the $650 level. If Meta can hold its ground there, the AI story might just justify the volatility.