Meta (META) Options Signal $650 Bull Call Play Amid AI Pivot and Oversold Conditions

• Meta’s price action shows a 0.41% intraday gain, trading at $623.37 amid a short-term bearish trend and long-term rangebound pattern.
• Options market highlights: 33,799 open interest at the $700 call and 14,445 at the $600 put for Friday’s expiry—suggesting a tug-of-war between cautious bulls and defensive bears.
• Block trade alert: A $706,800 trade in the META20260417C680 call hints at whale positioning for a late-April breakout above $680.

Here’s the thing: Meta’s options market is whispering a story of strategic indecision. The stock is technically oversold (RSI at 28) but trapped in a bearish K-line pattern. Meanwhile, the options data shows heavy call buying at $650–$700 strikes and defensive put accumulation near current levels. This isn’t just noise—it’s a playbook for a potential bounce… or a trap for the overconfident.

The Options Imbalance: A Bullish Setup With Bearish Guardrails

The call/put open interest ratio (0.59) tells us bulls are outspending bears right now. But don’t ignore the puts: 14,445 contracts at $600 and 8,878 at $620 suggest institutional players are hedging a drop. The most telling number? That 33,799 OI at the $700 call—traders are pricing in a 12% move above current levels.

Yet the block trade in the META20260417C680 call (304 contracts) adds intrigue. Why would someone lock in a strike 9% above today’s price with over three months to expiry? It could signal confidence in Meta’s AI pivot… or a hedge against a short-term selloff followed by a rebound. Either way, the $650–$680 range is now a psychological battleground.

Meta’s AI Pivot: A Tailwind or a Headwind?

The news isn’t all bad. Killing Horizon Workrooms and shifting to AI-driven tools could cut losses in the Reality Labs division, which burned $4.2B last year. But here’s the catch: investors are now betting on Meta’s ability to monetize AI without repeating past mistakes. The $100B+ CapEx forecast for 2026 is a double-edged sword—it fuels growth but risks free cash flow.

The market’s mixed signals are reflected in the stock’s price. It’s trading near its 200-day range ($622.5–$753.4) but stuck below key moving averages. If AI-driven earnings surprises materialize, the $650–$680 calls could ignite. If CapEx fears dominate, the $600–$620 puts will act as a net.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Prudent

For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy the META20260123C650 call (next Friday expiry) if Meta breaks above $625. The $650 strike is the most liquid and sits just 4% above current levels. A close above $629.08 (today’s high) would validate the move.
• Bearish Hedge: Sell the META20260123P620 put if Meta dips below $622.5 (lower Bollinger Band). The 8,878 OI at this strike means there’s buyer demand if the price tests support.

For stock traders:

• Long Entry: Consider buying near $622.5 if the price holds above the lower Bollinger Band. Target $650 as a first resistance level. Stop-loss below $620.
• Short-Term Range Trade: Sell into strength near $629.08 (today’s high) with a target at $622.5. The RSI at 28 suggests a rebound is possible, but the MACD (-6.44) warns against holding too long.

Volatility on the Horizon: Watch the $650–$680 Crossroads

The next 72 hours will be critical. If Meta closes above $629.08, the $650 call options could see a surge in demand. But if the stock slips below $621.25 (today’s low), the $600–$620 puts will act as a safety net. Either way, the options market is pricing in a binary outcome: a breakout or a breakdown.

This isn’t a high-conviction trade—it’s a calculated bet on Meta’s ability to navigate its AI transition without repeating past stumbles. The key is to stay nimble. If the $650 call starts to heat up, ride the momentum. If the puts gain traction, don’t be afraid to cut losses. In a stock this volatile, patience is your best ally.