Meta to Launch AI Model Llama 4.X by Year-End: Analysts See 13% Upside

Meta Platforms is set to launch its AI model, Llama 4.X, by year-end, led by Alexandr Wang. Analysts predict an average upside of 13.03% for META from its current price of $751.11. GuruFocus estimates a slight downside in META's GF Value over the next year. The company is undergoing significant restructuring to remain at the forefront of technological advancements.

Meta Platforms, led by Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang, is set to launch its latest AI model, Llama 4.X, by year-end. This strategic move follows the company's April 2025 release of Llama 4, securing a first-mover advantage in the AI race [1]. Analysts predict an average upside of 13.03% for META stock, with a current price of $751.11, while GuruFocus estimates a slight downside in META's GF Value over the next year [2].

Llama 4.X is expected to build on the success of Llama 4, which leverages a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture to balance power and efficiency. The model's 10 million token context window outpaces competitors like Gemini 2.5 Pro's 1 million token limit [2]. However, Meta's delayed release of the Behemoth model, a 288B parameter model intended to serve as a teacher for smaller systems, has left a gap in its lineup. This delay risks ceding ground to rivals like OpenAI, which launched GPT-5 in August 2025 [1].

Meta's competitive edge lies in its ecosystem integration. The Meta AI app, launched in April 2025, personalizes user experiences across WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook, leveraging Llama 4 for conversational AI. This cross-platform strategy contrasts with OpenAI’s standalone ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini-centric approach, positioning Meta to capture 1 billion monthly active users by year-end [3]. Additionally, Meta’s $60–65 billion capex investment in GPUs and a 2GW data center ensures scalable infrastructure, a critical differentiator in an era where compute power defines AI capabilities [4].

However, benchmarks reveal vulnerabilities. Llama 4 Maverick underperformed on LM Arena compared to GPT-4o and Gemini 2.0 Flash, scoring 73.4% on the MMMU multimodal benchmark versus GPT-5’s 84.2% [5]. Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released in June 2024, also outperformed Llama 4 in coding tasks, achieving 49% accuracy on SWE-bench Verified versus Llama 4’s 40.6% [6]. These gaps highlight the need for Meta to accelerate refinements in its models, particularly in reasoning and coding domains.

The strategic release of Llama 4 Custom AIs and Meta AI Studio in August 2025 further underscores Meta’s focus on enterprise and EU markets [7]. By democratizing AI customization, Meta aims to replicate the success of its open-source Llama 3 series, which amassed 650 million downloads by late 2024 [8]. This approach contrasts with OpenAI’s closed ecosystem and Google’s enterprise-centric Gemini, offering developers a cost-effective alternative.

Meta Platforms is also bolstering its AI capabilities through partnerships. The recent partnership with Midjourney, a leading AI image and video generation startup, signifies Meta's commitment to an "all-of-the-above" approach to AI [9]. This collaboration allows Meta to license Midjourney's highly popular image and video generation technology, which has gained a significant following for producing artistic and realistic visuals. This move could potentially rival models such as OpenAI's Sora, Google's Veo, and Black Forest Lab's Flux, all of which are considered industry leaders in generative media [9].

Meta's expanding user base is also driving stock potential. In second-quarter 2025, Family Daily Active People or DAP was 3.48 billion, up 6.4% year over year. Per our model, DAP is expected to increase 6.6% year over year to 3.57 billion in 2025 [10]. The company’s focus on integrating AI into its platforms — Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Messenger, and Threads — is driving user engagement to boost ad revenues. The launch of AI video editing tools across Meta AI and the new Edits app are noteworthy developments [10].

Meta Platforms is facing tough competition for advertising dollars. Alphabet is leveraging AI to boost search dominance with the launch of Gemini 2.5, while Amazon is harnessing its vast retail media presence and expanding connected TV (CTV) footprint to drive ad revenues [10]. Despite these challenges, Meta’s strategic AI roadmap and ecosystem integration position it as a formidable leader in the AI arms race.

References:
[1] Meta releases Llama 4, a new crop of flagship AI models [https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/05/meta-releases-llama-4-a-new-crop-of-flagship-ai-models/]
[2] Llama 4 vs Gemini 2.5 vs GPT-4: 2025 AI Context Guide [https://raoinformationtechnology.com/ai-context-window-comparison-2025/]
[3] Introducing the Meta AI App: A New Way to Access Your AI Assistant [https://about.fb.com/news/2025/04/introducing-meta-ai-app-new-way-access-ai-assistant/]
[4] Mark Zuckerberg reveals Meta’s AI roadmap for 2025 [https://www.livemint.com/technology/tech-news/mark-zuckerberg-reveals-metas-ai-roadmap-for-2025-pledges-to-extend-american-tech-leadership-donald-trump-11737780227664.html]
[5] Llama 4 Maverick vs GPT-5 [https://llm-stats.com/models/compare/llama-4-maverick-vs-gpt-5-2025-08-07]
[6] Introducing Claude 3.5 Sonnet [https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-3-5-sonnet]
[7] Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META) has announced a strategic partnership with Midjourney, a leading AI image and video generation startup [https://www.tekedia.com/meta-secures-high-profile-partnership-with-midjourney-for-ai-image/]
[8] The future of AI: Built with Llama [https://ai.meta.com/blog/future-of-ai-built-with-llama/]
[9] Meta Platforms META is benefiting from an expanding user base [https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:587958422094b:0-meta-platforms-rides-on-expanding-user-base-a-sign-of-more-upside/]
[10] (Updated weekly) 2025 Meta & Facebook updates and news [https://socialbee.com/blog/facebook-updates/]