Meta's Call-Heavy Options and $700 Bullish Battle: How to Play the AI-Powered Rebound

• META trades at $648.22, down 0.3% from $650.13, with RSI near overbought territory at 70.9
• Open interest shows 0.58 put/call skew, with $700 calls (next Friday) leading the charge
• Block trades hint at $770 call buying ahead of January 2026

Here’s the thing: Meta’s options market is screaming about a $700 battleground. With call open interest dominating and block trades hinting at big bets above $750, this isn’t just noise—it’s a setup. The stock’s short-term bearish trend clashes with long-term AI ambitions, creating a trading crossroads.

The Call-Heavy Bull Case and Hidden Bear Risks

META’s options chain tells two stories. This Friday’s $690 and $700 calls (13,270 and 8,883 open contracts) show retail and institutional players eyeing a rebound. But the real fireworks are next Friday: $700 calls surge to 18,395 open contracts, while $1,000 calls (15,053 OI) suggest some are hedging for a moonshot.

The bear case isn’t dead. $630 puts (7,503 OI) and $600 puts (13,202 OI next Friday) highlight key support zones. That $600 level? It’s just below the 30D support band (608.65–611.90), making it a psychological floor.

Don’t ignore the block trades. The $770 call (META20260116C770) with $2.37M turnover signals big money positioning for a January 2026 rally. Meanwhile, the $780 and $800 calls sold in November hint at profit-taking or hedging by existing bulls.

AI Pivots and Pricing Wars: News That Could Shift the Odds

Meta’s pivot to closed AI models (Avocado) and VR price hikes creates a paradox. On one hand, monetizing AI aligns with OpenAI/Google’s playbook—good for long-term value. On the other, the stock’s 1.2% drop after the AI shift news shows investors are spooked by internal conflicts and delayed monetization.

The VR price hikes? They’re a defensive move to sustain hardware margins while AI eats budget. But if the metaverse vision falters, those price hikes could backfire. Right now, the market is pricing in uncertainty—hence the call-heavy options—but also potential if Avocado delivers.

3 Specific Trades to Consider Today

1. Bull Call Spread (Next Friday Expiry): Buy META20251219C670 ($670 call) at ~$18.50 and sell META20251219C700 ($700 call) at ~$12.50. This $6.00 credit gives you a defined risk ($18.50 max loss) if the stock stays below $670, while capping profit at $26.00 if META breaks $700. Why? The $670 strike sits just above the 200D MA (671.29), making it a technical sweet spot.

1. Stock Buy at Support: If META holds above $611.90 (upper end of 30D support), consider entries near $615–620. Target $670 as a first profit zone (aligns with 200D MA and call-heavy OI). Stop-loss below $600 puts (next Friday’s 13,202 OI level) makes sense here.

1. Bear Put Spread (If Volatility Spikes): Buy META20251219P600 ($600 put) at ~$15.00 and sell META20251219P630 ($630 put) at ~$8.00. This $7.00 debit gives you a $23.00 profit if META drops below $600, but limits risk to $8.00 if the stock stabilizes. Use this if the $630 put OI (7,503 this Friday) turns into a liquidity trap.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing AI Hype and Reality

Meta’s options market is a chessboard. The call-heavy setup suggests a $700 target is in play, but the put OI at $600–630 warns of a potential 15% drop if AI monetization stumbles. With $600 billion in AI bets and internal conflicts unresolved, this stock isn’t for the faint-hearted.

Your edge? Watch the $670–675 range closely. If Meta breaks above that, the $700 call OI could ignite a short-term rally. But if the $630 put level holds, it might be time to rethink the AI bullishness. Either way, the next two weeks will tell if this is a rebound or a re-rating.