Merck Shares Rise 1.5% on FDA Oncology Milestone $1.04 Billion Volume Ranks 79th in Market Activity

Merck (MRK) rose 1.50% on Aug. 22, 2025, with a trading volume of $1.04 billion, ranking 79th in market activity. The move followed regulatory progress in its oncology pipeline, which remains a key focus for investors tracking the stock’s long-term trajectory.

The U.S. FDA’s Breakthrough Therapy Designation for ifinatamab deruxtecan, a collaboration between Merck and Daiichi Sankyo, marked a significant milestone for the drug’s development in treating extensive-stage small cell lung cancer. This recognition underscores Merck’s efforts to advance targeted cancer therapies and bolster its pipeline amid challenges such as KEYTRUDA’s looming patent expirations. The designation is seen as a strategic win but is not expected to materially shift near-term revenue dynamics, as analysts emphasize the need for broader pipeline success to offset potential revenue gaps.

Recent Health Canada approval for KEYTRUDA in head and neck cancer further highlights Merck’s push to expand the drug’s indications. However, analysts caution that intensifying global competition in oncology and late-stage pipeline areas could pose risks. While KEYTRUDA’s growing applications remain critical to sustaining revenue, the company must navigate a crowded market to maintain its competitive edge.

Merck’s projected $72.1 billion in revenue by 2028 relies on consistent pipeline growth, with analysts forecasting 4.3% annual revenue expansion. A fair value estimate of $100.41 per share, reflecting a 17% upside, hinges on successful execution of its oncology strategy. Meanwhile, divergent investor opinions on the stock’s intrinsic value—ranging from $75.94 to $208.13—highlight the uncertainty surrounding its long-term potential.

The strategy of buying the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding them for one day from 2022 to now delivered a compound annual growth rate of 6.98%, with a maximum drawdown of 15.59% recorded during the backtest period. The approach showed steady returns but experienced a notable decline in mid-2023, underscoring the risks associated with high-volume trading strategies.