Mercadolibre Surges 9.3% Amid Sector Rally – What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• Mercadolibre (MELI) rockets 9.32% intraday to $2,157.65, piercing the $2,200 threshold
• Sector leader Amazon (AMZN) gains 2.84%, while leveraged ETF KraneShares 2x Long MELI (KMLI) surges 18.05%
• Technicals show RSI at 41.24 and MACD (-22.1) flipping positive, hinting at short-term reversal potential

Today’s explosive move in Mercadolibre defies its long-term bearish trend, with the stock trading near its 52-week high of $2,645.22. The surge aligns with a broader Internet Retail sector rebound, though MELI’s volatility far outpaces AMZN’s muted gains. With turnover at 864,507 shares and a 1.85% turnover rate, liquidity remains robust as the stock tests critical resistance levels.

Sector Rally Drives MELI Higher as Amazon Gains Momentum
The 9.32% intraday surge in Mercadolibre directly correlates with the Internet Retail sector’s upward thrust, led by Amazon’s 2.84% gain. While no company-specific news triggered the move, the leveraged ETF KraneShares 2x Long MELI (KMLI) amplified the rally with an 18.05% jump, suggesting thematic positioning rather than fundamental catalysts. The stock’s price action—breaking above the 200-day MA of $2,267.75—reflects speculative capital inflows capitalizing on sector rotation.

Internet Retail Sector Rebounds as Amazon Leads, MELI Overshoots
While Amazon’s 2.84% gain anchors the sector’s recovery, Mercadolibre’s 9.32% surge far outpaces its peers, indicating divergent positioning. The leveraged ETF KMLI’s 18.05% jump underscores amplified exposure to MELI’s volatility. This suggests traders are leveraging MELI as a proxy for broader e-commerce optimism, despite its 57.05x dynamic P/E ratio remaining elevated compared to AMZN’s 48.3x valuation.

ETF-Driven Momentum Play: Technicals and Leveraged Exposure
• 52W High: $2,645.22 (above) • RSI: 41.24 (neutral) • MACD: -22.1 (flipping positive) • 200D MA: $2,267.75 (below) • Bollinger Bands: Price at 2113.88 (upper) • Turnover Rate: 1.85% (healthy)

With MELI trading near its 52-week high and RSI at 41.24, the stock appears to have reversed its short-term bearish trend. The 200-day MA at $2,267.75 acts as a critical psychological barrier; a break above this could trigger a retest of the $2,645.22 52W high. The leveraged ETF KraneShares 2x Long MELI (KMLI) at $15.661 offers amplified exposure, with its 18.05% gain today reflecting aggressive positioning. Traders should monitor the 20-day EMA at $2,018.95 for potential pullback support. While the options chain is silent, the ETF’s performance highlights the sector’s speculative appeal.

Backtest Mercadolibre Stock Performance
The backtest of MELI's performance after an intraday surge of over 9% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 49.30%, the 10-Day win rate at 51.10%, and the 30-Day win rate at 54.09%. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 5.82% over 30 days, suggesting that while MELI has a good chance of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of a 9% surge, the overall performance is capped relatively quickly.

Bullish Momentum Intact – Key Levels to Watch for Next Move
Mercadolibre’s 9.32% surge suggests short-term bullish momentum, but the long-term bearish trend remains intact. Traders should focus on the 200-day MA at $2,267.75 as a critical breakout level and the RSI’s 41.24 reading to gauge overbought conditions. With Amazon (AMZN) up 2.84%, sector rotation remains a tailwind. Immediate action: Buy KMLI for leveraged exposure if MELI holds above $2,113.88 (Bollinger upper band). Watch for a breakdown below $2,010.89 (intraday low) to trigger a reevaluation of the rally’s sustainability.