MercadoLibre Stock Rises 2.96% to $2,525.58 Amid 4-Day 5.70% Rally

Mercadolibre (MELI) shares rose 2.96% to close at $2,525.58 in the latest session, marking a fourth consecutive daily gain that has lifted the stock 5.70% over this period. This upward momentum follows a corrective phase in early June and positions the price near critical technical resistance. Below is a detailed technical analysis aligned with the required framework:
Candlestick Theory
The four consecutive bullish candles—with the latest session closing near its high ($2,530.6)—signal robust buying pressure. This pattern resembles a bullish continuation setup, though exhaustion risks emerge near the $2,530-$2,593 resistance zone (June 5 high). Immediate support rests at $2,478 (today’s low), with stronger footing at $2,376 (June 23 low). A close above $2,593 would invalidate the recent lower high and confirm bullish resumption.
Moving Average Theory
The current price trades above all key moving averages (50-day, 100-day, 200-day), confirming a bullish intermediate to long-term trend. The 50-day MA (approximately $2,450) recently provided support during the June pullback, while the 200-day MA (roughly $2,100) maintains a steadfast upward slope. The alignment—shorter averages above longer ones—suggests sustained upward momentum. However, the absence of a decisive golden cross (50-day above 200-day) tempers bullish conviction slightly.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has turned positive in recent sessions, indicating strengthening bullish momentum as the fast line crosses above the signal line. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator shows the %K line (84) and %D line (79) crossing upward in overbought territory (>80), reflecting strong short-term momentum but raising reversal risks. This convergence of bullish MACD and overextended KDJ signals robust near-term upside potential, though prudent to monitor for bearish divergences if the price stalls.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands have expanded notably during this rally, reflecting a volatility surge after the June consolidation. The price currently hugs the upper band (~$2,530), typically indicating overbought conditions. This expansion phase supports bullish continuation, but a reversal below the middle band ($2,420, 20-day SMA) would signal momentum loss. The bands’ width suggests adequate room for near-term upside before mean reversion risks escalate.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends reveal mixed signals: the initial rally day (June 23) saw volume surge 47% (349,793 shares vs prior), validating the breakout. However, subsequent gains occurred on diminishing volume (June 24 volume: 246,278 shares), diverging from the price advance. This divergence suggests caution, as waning volume may undermine sustainability if not remedied by renewed accumulation near highs.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 65, in neutral territory but ascending toward overbought thresholds. It rebounded sharply from oversold levels (<30) during the June correction, supporting the current rally. While not yet overbought (>70), its rapid climb warrants vigilance for bearish divergence—particularly if the price makes new highs without RSI confirmation. Current levels permit additional upside before triggering overbought warnings.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the recent decline from $2,581.74 (June 5 high) to $2,371.98 (June 13 low) reveals critical levels: 38.2% ($2,452), 50% ($2,477), and 61.8% ($2,501). The price has decisively reclaimed the 61.8% retracement, signaling strong bullish sentiment. Confluence exists at $2,501 (Fibonacci) and $2,500 (psychological support), solidifying this zone as a pivot. A sustained break above $2,532 (78.6% retracement) opens a path toward the all-time high.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence reinforces bullishness at $2,450–$2,470 (50-day MA, Fibonacci 38.2–50%, and volume-supported breakout zone). Divergences appear between price-volume (diminishing volume on ascent) and price-RSI (moderate RSI reading despite sharp gains), suggesting near-term consolidation risks. The lack of bearish reversal candlesticks and MACD confirmation nonetheless supports upside continuation above $2,500. Probabilistically, bullish momentum likely persists barring a close below $2,450, which would trigger reassessment.