Mercadolibre Slides 0.46% as Volume Dives to 133rd in Market Activity Mixed Analysts and Earnings Disappointment Weigh on Shares

Market Snapshot

On November 4, 2025, Mercadolibre (MELI) closed with a 0.46% decline, trading at a volume of $0.89 billion—a 23.2% drop from the previous day’s volume—which ranked it 133rd in market activity. The stock’s performance followed mixed analyst sentiment, with a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating and a median price target of $2,799.41. Despite a 39.5% year-over-year revenue increase to $7.41 billion in the latest quarter, earnings per share of $8.32 fell short of estimates by $1.56, contributing to the downward pressure. The stock’s 50-day moving average stood at $2,310.58, and its beta of 1.46 indicated higher volatility relative to the market.

Key Drivers

The recent earnings report underscored a divergence between revenue growth and profit expectations. While Mercadolibre’s quarterly revenue surged 39.5% year-over-year to $7.41 billion, driven by its e-commerce and fintech platforms, the $8.32 EPS missed the $9.88 consensus estimate. This miss highlighted operational challenges, including a 7.93% net margin and a 41.35% return on equity, which, though strong, fell below investor expectations. Analysts attributed the earnings shortfall to rising costs or competitive pressures in Latin America’s e-commerce sector, where Mercadolibre holds a dominant position.

Analyst activity in late October and early November reflected a spectrum of views. JPMorgan raised its price target from $2,600 to $2,650 with a "neutral" rating, while Morgan Stanley increased its target to $2,950 with an "overweight" designation, signaling optimism about long-term growth. Conversely, Cantor Fitzgerald and Benchmark lowered their targets by 5.17% and 3.30%, respectively, citing valuation concerns. The consensus target of $2,799.41 implied a 21.98% upside from the $2,351.76 closing price, but the "Moderate Buy" rating highlighted lingering uncertainty. This mixed guidance may have contributed to the stock’s muted performance, as investors weighed short-term disappointments against long-term potential.

Institutional ownership trends also influenced sentiment. Hedge funds and institutional investors collectively owned 87.62% of shares, with recent purchases by firms like Barlow Wealth Partners and Bensler LLC adding $26.89 million and $10.93 million, respectively. This inflow suggested confidence in Mercadolibre’s strategic initiatives, including its fintech expansion and cross-border commerce capabilities. However, the stock’s high price-to-earnings ratio of 57.98 and a PEG ratio of 1.56 indicated that growth expectations were already priced in, leaving limited room for surprise-driven rallies.

Market dynamics further complicated the outlook. The stock’s 1.46 beta and a 1.20 current ratio reflected its exposure to macroeconomic risks, particularly in emerging markets. Meanwhile, the recent volatility—swinging between a 52-week low of $1,646 and a high of $2,645—suggested that investors remained cautious about near-term catalysts. Analysts from Jefferies and Susquehanna maintained "hold" and "positive" ratings, respectively, emphasizing the need for sustained revenue momentum and cost discipline to justify the elevated valuation.

The interplay of these factors—strong revenue but weak earnings, divergent analyst opinions, and institutional buying—created a tug-of-war in the stock’s price action. While Mercadolibre’s expansion into financial services and its 218 million active users positioned it as a long-term growth story, the immediate outlook remained clouded by profitability concerns. As the market digested these signals, the 0.46% decline on November 4 underscored the delicate balance between optimism for its ecosystem and skepticism about near-term execution.