MercadoLibre Q2 Preview: Fintech Gains vs FX Headwinds

Mercado Libre is set to release Q2 results on Aug 4, with consensus expecting revenue of $6.68 billion, up 32% YoY, and EPS of $11.93, up 14% YoY. Investors will focus on total payment volume, credit-portfolio loss ratios, and take-rate trends as Mercado Pago widens its lead in Latin America. Marketplace gross merchandise volume is forecast to slow to the high-teens due to Amazon and Shopee's aggressive spending in Brazil.

MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) is set to release its Q2 2025 earnings on August 4, with consensus expectations for revenue of $6.68 billion, up 32% year-over-year (YoY), and earnings per share (EPS) of $11.93, up 14% YoY. Investors will be closely watching key metrics such as total payment volume, credit-portfolio loss ratios, and take-rate trends for Mercado Pago, as the fintech arm continues to expand its lead in Latin America. Additionally, the marketplace gross merchandise volume (GMV) is forecast to slow to the high-teens due to increased competition from Amazon and Shopee in Brazil.

In the second quarter of 2025, MercadoLibre reported a revenue of $6.8 billion, up 33.8% YoY, driven by accelerating commerce and fintech revenues. The company's fintech division, Mercado Pago, saw a significant increase in monthly active users, growing 30% YoY to 67.6 million. The commerce segment also showed robust growth, with items sold rising 30.6% YoY to 550 million and GMV increasing 21% YoY to $15.3 billion [1].

However, the company's gross margin contracted by 105 basis points (bps) to 46% YoY, and operating expenses increased by 38.4% YoY to $2.3 billion. The operating margin contracted by 210 bps to 12.2%, indicating a challenge in maintaining profitability alongside aggressive growth investments [1].

MercadoLibre's leadership transition, with CEO Marcos Galperin moving to Executive Chairman and Ariel Szarfsztejn becoming CEO effective January 2026, may also influence investor sentiment. The company's strategic investments in logistics, such as expanding its fulfillment network, have led to improved delivery speeds and a higher share of same- and next-day deliveries, particularly in Mexico and Argentina [2].

Investors will also be looking at MercadoLibre's integration with Google Ad Manager, which has expanded the company's reach beyond its ecosystem and enabled advertisers to manage campaigns both inside and outside the Mercado Libre platform. This move has positioned the company to become a major media player in Latin America, with advertising revenue growing 38% YoY in USD and 59% YoY on an FX-neutral basis [2].

Overall, MercadoLibre's Q2 2025 results reflect a mix of growth and challenges. The company's strong performance in the commerce and fintech segments, along with its strategic investments, has driven significant revenue growth. However, the contraction in gross margin and increased operating expenses pose challenges for maintaining profitability. Investors will closely monitor the company's ability to navigate these challenges and continue its expansion in Latin America.

References:
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mercadolibre-q2-earnings-miss-estimates-144500201.html
[2] https://www.stocktitan.net/news/MELI/mercado-libre-delivers-another-strong-performance-in-q2-25-reporting-io0kbjvp5jn2.html