MELI Plummets 2.47% Amid Earnings Miss and Institutional Exodus – What’s Next?

Summary
• Mercadolibre (MELI) plunges 2.47% to $2,358.18, its lowest since March 2025
• Q1 EPS of $10.31 misses estimates by $1.70, sparking investor panic
• Ardsley Advisory Partners LP cuts stake by 221.9%, now holding 5,150 shares

Today’s selloff in Mercadolibre reflects a perfect storm of earnings disappointment and institutional underperformance. The stock’s 2.47% drop—its worst intraday decline since March—has pushed it below key technical levels, with the 200-day moving average at $2,169.51 now in sight. Analysts are scrambling to assess whether this is a short-term correction or a deeper re-rating of the e-commerce giant’s growth prospects.

Earnings Disappointment and Institutional Exodus Trigger Sell-Off
Mercadolibre’s 2.47% decline stems from a combination of earnings underperformance and institutional selling. The company reported Q1 EPS of $10.31, missing the $12.01 consensus by $1.70, despite a 33.8% year-over-year revenue increase to $6.79 billion. This disconnect between top-line growth and profitability raised red flags. Simultaneously, Ardsley Advisory Partners LP, a major institutional holder, reduced its stake by 221.9% in Q1, now holding 5,150 shares valued at $10 million. The sell-off accelerated as analysts downgraded price targets, with Goldman Sachs cutting its target to $3,000 from $2,640, signaling skepticism about MELI’s ability to sustain its 58.77 P/E ratio.

Internet Retail Sector Suffers as AMZN Drags, MELI Follows Suit
The Internet Retail sector, led by Amazon (AMZN), saw broad-based weakness, with AMZN down 0.98% on the day. MELI’s 2.47% drop outperformed peers like Shopify (SHOP -0.58%) and Sea Limited (SE +0.05%), but underperformed Coupang (CPNG -0.26%). The sector’s struggles reflect broader concerns about e-commerce margins amid rising logistics costs and regulatory scrutiny. MELI’s decline, however, is more acute due to its earnings miss and institutional underperformance, creating a divergence from the sector’s broader narrative.

Technical Indicators Signal Volatility – Here’s How to Position
• MACD: 8.36 (bullish), Signal Line: 2.66, Histogram: 5.70 (positive divergence)
• RSI: 60.64 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $2,277.07–$2,475.36 (price near lower band)
• 200D MA: $2,169.51 (critical support), 30D MA: $2,375.64 (resistance)

MELI’s technical profile suggests a volatile near-term path. The RSI at 60.64 indicates no immediate overbought/oversold conditions, while the MACD’s positive divergence hints at lingering bullish momentum. However, the stock’s proximity to the 200D MA and lower Bollinger Band ($2,277.07) signals a potential bounce or breakdown. Traders should monitor the $2,335.45 support/resistance zone (30D level) and the 200D MA as key inflection points. With no options data available, leveraged ETFs like XLK (Nasdaq-100) or XLF (Financials) could offer indirect exposure to MELI’s sector dynamics.

Backtest Mercadolibre Stock Performance
I’m currently unable to extract the exact trading‐days list that meets the “≥ 2 % intraday drop” rule, because the intermediate calculation step that converts raw MELI price data into an event‐date list returned a system error. Here are two options to move forward:1. Retry with an alternate workflow (I’ll attempt a different internal method to derive the event dates, which may take a bit more time). 2. If you already have—or can quickly obtain—the dates when MELI’s close was at least 2 % below the day’s open (from 2022-01-01 to today), you could paste them here and I’ll proceed directly to the event-impact back-test.Please let me know which you prefer, and we’ll continue from there.

MELI at Crossroads: Breakdown or Bounce? Watch These Levels
Mercadolibre’s 2.47% drop has created a critical juncture for investors. The stock’s ability to hold above the 200D MA ($2,169.51) and retest the 30D support/resistance zone ($2,335.45) will determine its near-term trajectory. A breakdown below $2,277.07 could trigger a re-rating toward the 52W low of $1,646, while a rebound above $2,450.22 (intraday high) might attract bargain hunters. Sector leader AMZN (-0.98%) offers a barometer for retail sentiment. Aggressive bulls may consider a long bias if MELI closes above $2,375.64, while bears should watch for a breakdown below $2,169.51. Act now: Set stop-loss orders at $2,277.07 and monitor earnings revisions.