Mercadolibre (MELI) Surges 2.94% on Robotics Partnership and Institutional Shifts—What’s Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• Mercadolibre’s stock surges 2.94% to $2,028.70, hitting an intraday high of $2,042.05
• Institutional investors like Norges Bank and UBS boost stakes, while BNP Paribas trims holdings
• Robotics partnership with Agility Robotics and Q3 earnings beat drive market optimism

Today’s 2.94% rally in Mercadolibre (MELI) reflects a confluence of strategic innovation and institutional sentiment. The stock’s surge to $2,028.70—its highest since December 2025—follows a partnership with Agility Robotics to deploy Digit humanoid robots in Texas fulfillment centers and a Q3 revenue beat of $7.41B. Institutional activity also intensified, with Norges Bank and UBS increasing stakes while BNP Paribas reduced its position. The move underscores investor confidence in MELI’s automation-driven efficiency and long-term growth potential.

Robotics Partnership and Earnings Beat Ignite Optimism
Mercadolibre’s 2.94% intraday gain is driven by two key catalysts: a strategic partnership with Agility Robotics and Q3 earnings momentum. The collaboration to deploy Digit humanoid robots in Texas aims to automate repetitive, physically demanding tasks, enhancing warehouse efficiency and addressing labor shortages. This aligns with MELI’s broader automation strategy, which includes AI-driven logistics. Meanwhile, Q3 revenue surged 39.5% to $7.41B, exceeding estimates of $7.19B, despite missing EPS by $1.56. The earnings beat, coupled with institutional buying from Norges Bank and UBS, signals confidence in MELI’s ability to scale operations and maintain profitability in a competitive Latin American market.

Internet Retail Sector Mixed as Amazon Slides
The internet retail sector showed divergent momentum, with Amazon (AMZN) down 0.78% despite MELI’s rally. While MELI’s robotics partnership highlights innovation in logistics, Amazon’s decline reflects broader e-commerce margin pressures. MELI’s 2.94% gain outperformed the sector, driven by its niche focus on Latin American markets and automation-driven cost efficiency. However, Amazon’s scale and global reach remain a long-term tailwind, contrasting with MELI’s regional exposure and higher valuation multiples.

Options and ETFs for Navigating MELI’s Volatility
• 200-day average: 2,272.63 (above) • RSI: 42.26 (neutral) • MACD: -27.16 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 2,028.70 near middle band (2,051.8975)

MELI’s technicals suggest short-term bearish pressure but a long-term bearish trend. The stock is trading near its 200-day average, with RSI in neutral territory. The MACD (-27.16) and bearish Kline pattern indicate caution, while Bollinger Bands suggest consolidation. Key levels to watch include the 200-day average (2,272.63) and the 52-week high (2,645.22).

Top Options:
• MELI20260123C2040 (Call, Strike: 2,040, Expiry: 2026-01-23): Delta 0.0075 (low), Gamma 0.0102 (moderate), Theta -0.0147 (high decay). This option offers high leverage (404,984%) but low delta, making it speculative for a sharp rally. Implied volatility is low (0.29%), suggesting limited near-term volatility expectations.
• MELI20260123C2040 is the only viable option in the chain, though its zero turnover indicates illiquidity. A 5% upside to $2,130 would yield a payoff of $90 per contract, but execution risks are high due to low volume.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls may consider the MELI20260123C2040 call if the stock breaks above the 200-day average (2,272.63). However, the bearish MACD and Kline pattern suggest a cautious approach. A short-term target of $2,100–$2,150 is plausible, but a breakdown below $2,000 could trigger further declines.

Backtest Mercadolibre Stock Performance
The backtest of MELI's performance after an intraday surge of at least 3% from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-day win rate is 50.39%, the 10-day win rate is 52.36%, and the 30-day win rate is 56.10%, indicating that the stock tends to experience positive returns in the short term following such an event. The maximum return observed was 6.06% over 30 days, suggesting that there is potential for significant gains if the surge is followed by favorable market conditions.

MELI’s Rally Faces Technical Headwinds—Watch for Breakouts or Breakdowns
Mercadolibre’s 2.94% rally is a short-term bounce amid strategic innovation and institutional buying, but technical indicators suggest caution. The stock’s proximity to its 200-day average and bearish MACD (-27.16) indicate potential for a pullback. Investors should monitor the 200-day average (2,272.63) as a key resistance level and the 52-week low ($1,646) as a critical support. Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN)’s -0.78% decline highlights sector-wide margin pressures. For MELI, a breakout above $2,272.63 could reignite bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $2,000 may signal deeper correction. Aggressive traders may consider the MELI20260123C2040 call for a sharp rally, but liquidity constraints remain a risk. Action: Watch for a decisive move above $2,272.63 or below $2,000 to define the next phase.