MercadoLibre Drops 3.77% Amid Bearish Technical Signals and 2500 Resistance Rejection

Mercadolibre (MELI) declined 3.77% in its latest trading session, closing at 2379.76 after establishing an intraday low of 2365.44 and high of 2438.777. This price action occurred within the context of a broader technical landscape, as analyzed below across multiple frameworks.
Candlestick Theory
The most recent session formed a long red candle, closing near its low after a 3.77% decline, indicating strong selling pressure. This follows a Doji pattern on August 29 (0.03% gain, small body between 2446.30–2503.24), which appeared after a significant 2.44% advance on August 28. This sequence resembles an evening star pattern near the psychological $2500 resistance level – a bearish reversal signal. Key immediate support now lies at 2365.44 (September 2 low), with secondary support at 2347.50 (August 22 low). Resistance is well-defined at 2504.37 (August 28 high), reinforced by the 2500 psychological barrier and the July 1 peak at 2645.22.
Moving Average Theory
Recent price movement below the 50-day moving average (~2400) suggests short-term bearish pressure, though the maintenance of the 100-day (~2350) and 200-day (~2200) averages reflects the broader uptrend. The convergence of the 50-day and 100-day averages may indicate consolidation, while the sustained 50-day above 200-day configuration confirms a longer-term golden cross. However, the inability to hold above the 50-day MA after repeated tests in August could signal weakening near-term momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has turned negative in recent sessions, signaling increasing bearish momentum as the MACD line crosses below its signal line. This divergence from price action – occurring while MELI tested the 2500 resistance zone – suggests waning upside momentum. Concurrently, KDJ readings nearing oversold territory (K=~35, D=~40) imply potential short-term exhaustion in selling pressure, though a decisive J-line recovery above 30 would strengthen reversal prospects. The MACD’s bearish crossover near overbought territory reinforces caution about further downside risk.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bandwidth has contracted notably in August (~15% volatility reduction from July peaks), indicating reduced volatility and potential energy accumulation for a breakout. The recent close near the lower band (approximately 2350) after testing the upper band in late July suggests short-term bearish pressure. A sustained position below the 20-day moving average midline (~2450) would validate bearish momentum, while a rebound above this level could signal band reversion. The bands’ expansion during the late-August advance and subsequent contraction highlights increased directional sensitivity.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 3.77% decline on September 2 occurred alongside elevated volume (359,680 shares, 23% above the 30-day average), confirming bearish conviction. This contrasts with the August 28 rally (2.44% gain on 373,338 shares, 99-day volume peak), which validated bullish momentum. However, the subsequent August 29 Doji saw 22% lower volume, suggesting indecision at highs. The volume profile shows consistent confirmation of directional moves: expanding volume accompanies significant price changes (e.g., July 1 sell-off at -4.29% on 573,489 shares; August 22 rally at +3.99% on 436,344 shares). Current high-volume selling warns of sustainability in downward pressure unless absorbed by comparable buying volume.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI sits at approximately 40, retreating from neutral levels after the recent sell-off but remaining above oversold territory (<30). This positioning allows room for further downside before signaling technical exhaustion. A longer-term perspective reveals bearish divergence: the July peak of 2645 occurred with RSI at ~65 (below June’s overbought reading at 72), suggesting weakening momentum. While current RSI does not yet indicate oversold conditions, traders should monitor for potential reversals if it approaches 30 with corresponding price stabilization.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the primary swing low (1666 on December 19, 2024) and high (2645.22 on July 1, 2025) yields key levels: 23.6% at 2414, 38.2% at 2271, and 50% at 2155. The September 2 close (2379.76) places MELI between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels. The proximity to the 23.6% support (~2414), which aligns with the August lows and 100-day MA, highlights its critical role. A sustained break below 2414 may expose the 38.2% level (2271), while consolidation above it could facilitate a retest of resistance near 2500. The confluence of Fibonacci support with the volume-by-price node at 2400-2425 enhances its technical significance.
Confluence analysis reveals multiple indicators aligning near the 2400–2414 zone: the 100-day moving average, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, and high-volume node establish a critical support battleground. Bearish agreement appears between the MACD crossover, volume-confirmed price breakdown, and evening star candlestick pattern near resistance. A notable divergence exists in momentum oscillators: while KDJ approaches oversold levels, RSI remains neutral, suggesting either latent downside risk or a warning against premature reversal calls. Collectively, technicals suggest MELI faces bearish near-term pressure within a longer-term uptrend, with directional resolution hinging on the 2400–2414 support confluence. A break below 2365 could accelerate selling toward 2271, whereas recovery above 2450 would ease immediate downside concerns.