Mercadolibre's $810M Volume Ranks 115th as Bullish Signals Clash with Profit Pressures

Mercadolibre (MELI) closed August 11, 2025, down 2.62% with a trading volume of $810 million, ranking 115th in market activity. Technical indicators on the 15-minute chart showed a KDJ Golden Cross at 14:00 alongside a Bullish Marubozu candlestick pattern, signaling potential upward momentum despite the intraday decline. These formations suggest buyers maintained control of the market, with analysts noting continued pressure from higher marketing costs and Brazil's free shipping policy adjustments impacting profit margins.

Second-quarter revenue for the e-commerce giant rose to $6.79 billion from $5.07 billion in the prior year, though net income dipped slightly to $523 million. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with JP Morgan upgrading the price target to $2,700—a 3.85% increase—from $2,600. Other major firms including Raymond James, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup have echoed positive sentiment, reinforcing confidence in Mercadolibre’s long-term growth trajectory despite near-term margin challenges.

Backtesting of a volume-based strategy revealed that purchasing the top 500 liquid stocks daily and holding for one day generated a 166.71% return from 2022 to the present. This outperformed the benchmark by 137.53%, underscoring the role of liquidity concentration in short-term performance. High-volume stocks like Mercadolibre demonstrated asymmetric risk-reward potential, particularly in volatile markets shaped by macroeconomic shifts and operational adjustments.