Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Breakdown

• Price action showed a bullish recovery from 0.002582 to 0.002656, with a 24-h high of 0.002656 and close near 0.002641
• Momentum picked up during late ET hours, with RSI peaking above 60 suggesting moderate overbought conditions
• Volatility increased through Bollinger Band expansion, and volume spiked above average during key upswings
• Notable bullish patterns include a bullish engulfing at 0.002592–0.002612 and a morning star at 0.002609–0.002634
• Turnover reached 159.7M at peak, but divergences appeared after 0.002656, signaling potential exhaustion

Price Action and Initial Trends

The Memecoin/Tether (MEMEUSDT) pair opened at 0.002594 (12:00 ET − 1), reached a 24-h high of 0.002656, and closed at 0.002641 (12:00 ET today). Total volume over the 24-hour window was 522,425,015.0, with notional turnover peaking at 159.7M. The price action exhibited a clear bullish trend during the later half of the session, especially between 21:45 ET and 02:15 ET, where a 0.15% upward move was confirmed by increasing volume.

Structure & Moving Averages

Key support levels were observed at 0.002604, 0.00259, and 0.002574, with resistance forming around 0.002652–0.002656. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bullish, with price holding above both during the late ET hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appeared to offer strong support, while the 200-period MA remained neutral.

Momentum and Volatility

The RSI climbed above 60 after 21:45 ET, indicating overbought conditions, but failed to push above 70, suggesting traders were cautious. MACD remained in positive territory with a bullish crossover confirmed around 21:30 ET. Bollinger Bands expanded during the late ET session, indicating rising volatility, with price frequently testing the upper band. This suggests heightened bullish momentum, but caution is advised given the lack of a clear breakout above the 0.002656 resistance.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the 0.002625–0.002656 rally, with the most significant spikes occurring around 21:45 ET and 22:45 ET. However, after the 0.002656 high, volume dropped significantly while price tested the upper Bollinger Band, signaling potential exhaustion. Turnover also showed divergence from price, with notional turnover declining during the pullback from 0.002656 to 0.002631, which could hint at a weakening of bullish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracements highlighted 0.002627 (61.8%) as a key level of support during the pullback, which was successfully tested and bounced from around 23:45 ET. The 0.002652–0.002656 range corresponds to a 127.2% Fibonacci extension, suggesting a possible reversal point if the pair fails to break out. On the daily chart, the 0.00262–0.002656 swing is a key area to monitor for continuation or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on confirming bullish momentum through a combination of RSI overbought conditions (RSI > 60), a positive MACD crossover, and volume expansion above a 1.5x average. A long entry is triggered when price closes above the 20-period MA and volume exceeds the 15-minute average by more than 1.5x. The stop-loss is placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the immediate swing, with a target set at the next resistance level or the 127.2% extension. This approach appears to align well with the observed price action on the 15-minute chart, particularly the rally from 0.002604 to 0.002656.

The forward outlook for the next 24 hours suggests a continuation of bullish momentum, provided the 0.002656–0.002641 range holds. However, a pullback below the 0.002613 support could trigger a retest of the 0.00259–0.002574 zone. Investors are advised to monitor for a volume confirmation or divergence during this phase and adjust positions accordingly.