Meme Coins Struggle to Sustain Gains Despite Mixed Derivatives Data

Meme coins such as Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE) remain stable as of Thursday, following gains of 5%–10% on Wednesday. However, the sustained momentum appears to be lacking, signaling mixed market sentiment. Derivatives activity shows increased interest in Dogecoin compared to its peers, with higher Open Interest (OI) and whale activity supporting its relative strength.

Technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook for the three coins, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acting as key resistance for Dogecoin. Shiba Inu and Pepe also trade below their 50-day and 200-day EMAs, suggesting a lack of bullish continuation. Investors are closely monitoring whether Dogecoin can break through its $0.1108 resistance level.

Capital flows have shown a clear preference for Dogecoin in the derivatives market. Its Open Interest is at $1.04 billion, up 5.36% in 24 hours, indicating increased retail demand and capital inflows. In contrast, Shiba Inu's OI is at $62.75 million, while Pepe's OI is at $195.92 million, the latter showing a decline of over 6%.

Why the Move Happened

The derivatives data reveals a growing preference for Dogecoin among traders. It is the only meme coin showing taker-buy dominant order flow, as measured by the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), which tracks the difference between market buy and sell volumes. Shiba Inu's futures remain taker-sell dominant, while Pepe's CVD is neutral, reinforcing the market's current bias.

Large wallet investors, or whales, are also showing increased interest in the top-tier meme coins. CryptoQuant data shows that the average size of executed futures market orders has risen across the three coins, indicating potential consolidation ahead of a breakout or breakdown in price.

What Analysts Are Watching

Market participants are focusing on the 50-day EMA level for Dogecoin as a key threshold. A close above $0.1108 could signal renewed buying pressure, while a bearish close would likely reignite the downtrend toward the February 11 low at $0.0879.

Shiba Inu's immediate resistance is at $0.00000700, with the S1 pivot point at $0.00000528 acting as a critical support level. Pepe is similarly constrained below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, with the MACD line converging with the signal line on the daily chart, suggesting reduced buying pressure.

Retail investors are cautious, with declining OI in Shiba Inu and Pepe signaling a loss of retail strength. This trend may continue unless new capital flows or institutional interest materialize to shift the balance of power in the market.