Meme Coins Price Prediction: Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe Rally on Venezuela's Shadow BTC Reserve

Meme coins such as Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE) are leading the cryptocurrency market rally driven by the US cross-border operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The technical outlook for these major meme coins remains bullish, despite some short-term pauses in their performance. Venezuela’s shadow Bitcoin reserve is a key factor influencing the market.

The shift of Venezuela’s crude oil sales from the petrodollar to crypto, such as Tether’s USDT, has led to the accumulation of roughly $10 billion to $15 billion in digital assets. Maduro is believed to have converted USDT into BTC to avoid potential wallet freezes. Combined with a $2 billion gold swap for Bitcoin between 2018 and 2020 and mining seizures, Venezuela’s shadow reserve likely holds around 600,000 BTC.

If the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve absorbs or freezes Venezuela’s BTC holdings, it could reduce supply and trigger a surge in demand. This potential supply reduction is already being reflected in the ongoing market recovery. Investors are closely watching these developments as they could reshape Bitcoin’s global supply dynamics.

Why Did Meme Coins Rally?

Dogecoin’s price is up 2% at press time, building on 4% gains from Sunday. The coin has broken out of a descending wedge pattern on the daily logarithmic chart. This breakout aims for the 200-day EMA at $0.18202. Momentum indicators suggest strong buy-side dominance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 65, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is rising according to analysis.

Shiba Inu jumped nearly 12% on Sunday, breaking above a key resistance trendline. SHIB currently trades above the 50-day EMA at $0.00000821 and has shown signs of buy-side dominance. The RSI is at 65, and the MACD is rising, indicating bullish momentum.

Pepe, meanwhile, edges lower by nearly 2% after rising almost 18% on Sunday. The coin faces overhead pressure near the 200-day EMA at $0.00000749. If PEPE exceeds this level, it could target the September 25 low at $0.00000886. The RSI is in overbought territory at 79, suggesting potentially unsustainable buying pressure.

How Did the Market Respond to Venezuela’s Shadow BTC Reserve?

Venezuela’s alleged 600,000 BTC reserve is one of the largest holdings globally. The accumulation began in 2018 through gold swaps and domestic mining seizures. From 2023 to 2025, PDVSA exported crude oil in USDT, converting these stablecoins into BTC to mitigate the risk of account freezes.

The potential impact of these holdings is significant. If seized or frozen, it could trigger a major supply lock-up, similar to an institutional hold. This could support higher Bitcoin prices in Q1 2026 despite short-term volatility. Analysts see this as structurally bullish compared to traditional conflict-driven sell-offs.

The US faces critical decisions regarding the reserve. Freezing the assets or incorporating them into a strategic reserve is the most probable option. The scale of Venezuela’s holdings dwarfs previous government liquidations. For instance, in 2024, the German state of Saxony sold 50,000 BTC, triggering a market correction. Venezuela’s 600,000 BTC could have a much larger effect.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Investor sentiment toward meme coins remains positive, particularly for DOGE and SHIB. CoinGlass data shows a long-to-short ratio favoring long positions in DOGE and SHIB derivatives. However, PEPE shows mixed signals, with long positions dropping from 52.50% on Saturday to 50.04% at press time according to reports.

Dogecoin inches closer to flipping the bearish trend by holding above $0.1200. If it reclaims $0.1300, the Supertrend indicator would trigger a buy signal. The R1 Pivot Point at $0.1326 is the next key resistance level according to analysis.

Shiba Inu remains below the R1 Pivot Point at $0.00000757, but if it exceeds this level, it could target the R2 Pivot Point at $0.00000773. The technical indicators suggest a steady rise in bullish pressure according to market analysis.

Pepe faces a potential reversal if it slips below the R1 Pivot Point at $0.00000435. The RSI is at 51, indicating multiple rejections from the overbought zone. A potential crossover in MACD could trigger renewed bearish pressure according to technical indicators.

The broader market is also showing signs of a potential bullish divergence. Bitcoin’s weekly RSI values have hit levels not seen since the end of the 2022 bear market. This has led analysts to expect a reversal in the market trend.

The geopolitical developments in Venezuela are also influencing gold and oil markets. With 161 metric tons of gold reserves, Venezuela’s actions are expected to pressure these commodities. The implications for crypto, gold, and traditional financial markets are significant according to market analysis.

Investors are advised to monitor these developments closely. The potential supply reduction from Venezuela’s BTC holdings could have far-reaching effects on both the crypto and broader financial markets.