Is the Meme Coin Sector Entering a Prolonged Downturn?

The meme coin sector, once a symbol of retail-driven exuberance in the cryptocurrency market, is showing signs of distress. As of November 2025, Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB)-the two most prominent tokens in the category-have seen their market dominance erode amid broader speculative fatigue and bearish technical indicators. With the sector's total dominance hitting levels not seen since late 2022, investors are increasingly questioning whether this is a temporary correction or the start of a prolonged downturn.

Market Dominance: A Tale of Two Meme Coins

Dogecoin remains the undisputed leader in the meme coin space, with a market capitalization of $23.96 billion as of November 2025 according to analysis. Its historical legacy, bolstered by high-profile endorsements and a massive circulating supply of 151.8 billion tokens, has cemented its role as the most liquid and recognizable meme coin. However, even DOGE's dominance is under pressure. Shiba Inu, which once rivaled DOGE in 2021, now trails with a market cap of $5.16 billion according to analysis. Despite its ecosystem expansion-ShibaSwap and Shibarium-SHIB has lost over 90% of its all-time high, reflecting a broader loss of investor confidence.

The sector's struggles are not limited to these two tokens. Broader memecoin markets have seen a sharp decline in speculative activity, with dominance levels collapsing to multi-year lows. This suggests a structural shift away from high-beta assets, as macroeconomic uncertainty and regulatory scrutiny weigh on risk-on sentiment.

Technical Deterioration: Bearish Signals Across the Board

Technical analysis paints a grim picture for both DOGE and SHIB. Dogecoin has recently fallen below critical support levels, including $0.195, while its Relative Strength Index stands at 40-a clear bearish signal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also confirmed a bearish crossover, reinforcing the likelihood of a prolonged downtrend. On-chain metrics further underscore the weakness: declining open interest and reduced trading volume indicate waning participation. Analysts warn that a break below $0.181 could expose even lower levels, potentially pushing DOGE toward $0.12986 by year-end.

Shiba Inu's technical outlook is equally dire. The token remains trapped below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with RSI hovering in a neutral zone of 40–45. This indecision reflects a lack of conviction among traders, who are waiting for a catalyst to break the current stalemate. Meanwhile, SHIB's price is trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs-a textbook bearish setup. Without a sustained breakout above the 200-day EMA, SHIB risks further consolidation or a deeper decline.

Expert Opinions: A Cautious Outlook

Market sentiment for both tokens is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors. The delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts have dampened risk appetite, leading to a sell-off in speculative assets like memecoins. While some analysts remain cautiously optimistic-citing potential ETF launches for DOGE and strong retail demand- technical indicators suggest the bearish trend is far from over.

Critics of Shiba Inu argue that its lack of real-world utility makes it particularly vulnerable in a weak market according to analysis. "SHIB doesn't solve any significant problems," one analyst noted, "and its ecosystem has failed to attract meaningful adoption." In contrast, Dogecoin's resilience is partly attributed to its cultural cachet and institutional interest, though even these factors may not be enough to offset its technical deterioration according to analysis.

Long-term forecasts remain polarized. Gemini AI predicts volatile corrections for both tokens, with SHIB potentially seeing a 15× upside if it breaks key resistance levels-but also a significant downside risk in a weaker market. For Dogecoin, price targets range from a worst-case $0.10 to a bullish $0.85, depending on macroeconomic and regulatory developments.

Conclusion: A Sector in Transition

The meme coin sector is at a crossroads. While DOGE and SHIB have historically thrived on retail enthusiasm and social media hype, their current trajectories suggest a maturing market where speculation is giving way to fundamentals. The technical deterioration of leading tokens, coupled with declining market dominance, points to a prolonged downturn rather than a temporary correction. However, the sector's inherent volatility means that a rebound-driven by macroeconomic shifts, regulatory clarity, or unexpected adoption-cannot be ruled out entirely.

For now, investors are advised to approach meme coins with caution. As one on-chain analyst put it, the freeze in memecoin markets is not just a bear market-it's a test of whether these assets can evolve beyond their speculative roots.