MELI Plummets 3.84% Amid Robotics Partnership and Analyst Divergence: Is This a Buying Opportunity or a Warning Sign?

Summary
• Mercadolibre (MELI) trades at $1,990.73, down 3.84% from its $2,074.48 previous close
• Partnership with Agility Robotics to deploy Digit robots in Texas warehouses announced
• Analysts maintain 'Moderate Buy' rating with $2,848.82 average price target
• Sector peers like Amazon (AMZN) rally 1.42% as MELI underperforms

Today’s sharp selloff in Mercadolibre has sparked debate among traders and analysts. The stock’s 4% drop to $1,990.73—its lowest since October—coincides with a strategic robotics partnership and mixed earnings guidance. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $1,646 and a dynamic P/E of 52.64, investors are weighing whether this is a short-term correction or a deeper bearish signal.

Robotics Partnership and Earnings Miss Fuel Volatility
Mercadolibre’s 3.84% decline reflects a complex interplay of bullish and bearish forces. While the partnership with Agility Robotics to deploy Digit robots in Texas warehouses signals long-term innovation, the stock’s intraday low of $1,957.00 suggests immediate skepticism. This follows Q3 earnings that missed estimates by $1.56 per share, despite 39.5% revenue growth. The market appears to be discounting near-term execution risks, particularly as the company’s 52-week high of $2,645.22 remains 33% above current levels. Technical indicators like the bearish Kline pattern and negative MACD (-19.90) reinforce short-term selling pressure.

Internet Retail Sector Mixed as Amazon Leads Rally
The Internet Retail sector is showing divergent momentum, with Amazon (AMZN) surging 1.42% and MELI lagging. While MELI’s 17.33% YTD return outperforms the sector’s 11.95%, its 6.15% 1-year return trails the sector’s 8.77%. This suggests MELI’s long-term growth narrative faces near-term headwinds, particularly as tariffs and rising labor costs weigh on e-commerce margins. Amazon’s dominance in logistics and AI-driven fulfillment highlights the competitive gap Mercadolibre must close.

Navigating MELI’s Volatility: ETFs and Options Playbook
• 200-day MA: $2,273.62 (below) • RSI: 51.3 (neutral) • MACD: -19.90 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: $1,946.24–$2,170.44

MELI’s technicals suggest a bearish near-term bias, with key support at $1,946.24 and resistance at $2,058.34. The stock’s beta of 1.42 and high turnover rate (1.11%) indicate strong volatility, making it a candidate for options strategies. However, the provided options chain shows low liquidity (zero turnover for both contracts), limiting practicality. For ETF exposure, consider XERT (e-commerce ETF) to hedge against sector-wide risks.

Top Options Contracts:
• MELI20260123C2010 (Call, $2,010 strike, Jan 23, 2026): Delta 0.0074, IV 0.29%, Theta -0.01425, Gamma 0.010056. This call offers minimal directional exposure but is highly leveraged (398,936%). Ideal for speculative longs if MELI breaks above $2,010.
• MELI20270617C2130 (Call, $2,130 strike, June 17, 2027): Delta 0.0086, IV 0.07%, Theta -0.00133, Gamma 0.013431. This deep-out-of-the-money call is extremely leveraged (398,936%) but has negligible time decay. Suitable for long-term bullish bets on MELI’s AI-driven logistics transformation.

Given the lack of liquidity in the options chain, traders should focus on technical levels. A break below $1,946.24 could trigger further declines, while a rebound above $2,058.34 might attract short-covering. Aggressive bulls may consider XERT for sector exposure, while cautious investors should monitor the 52-week low as a critical support level.

Backtest Mercadolibre Stock Performance
The backtest of MELI's performance after a -4% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 52.32%, the 10-Day win rate is 54.78%, and the 30-Day win rate is 58.47%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 6.67%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that MELI has the potential for recovery and even surpassing its pre-plunge levels.

MELI at Crossroads: Robotics Bet or Correction Catalyst?
Mercadolibre’s 3.84% drop underscores the market’s cautious stance on its robotics partnership and earnings execution. While the stock’s 17.33% YTD return outperforms the sector, its 6.15% 1-year return lags behind Amazon’s 8.77%. Traders should watch the $1,946.24 support level and the sector leader Amazon (AMZN, +1.42%) for directional clues. For now, the bearish technical setup and low options liquidity suggest a wait-and-see approach. If MELI breaks below $1,946.24, consider XERT for sector hedging and revisit the $2,010 call option if volatility picks up.