Medline's Post-IPO Performance and Growth Trajectory: A Deep Dive into the Medical Supply Giant's Market Potential

Medline's initial public offering (IPO) in December 2025 marked a watershed moment for the medical supply industry,
raising $6.26 billion and becoming the largest global IPO of the year. Priced at $29 per share, the offering-upsized to 216 million shares-reflected robust institutional demand and positioned Medline as a publicly traded behemoth with
an implied market cap of $39 billion. This analysis evaluates the company's post-IPO performance, financial resilience, and long-term growth prospects, drawing on its operational scale, profitability, and strategic debt management.

Financial Performance: A Foundation of Profitability

Medline's financials underscore its dominance in the medical supply sector. For 2024, the company reported $25.5 billion in net sales, a 9.8% increase from 2023, with net income surging to $1.2 billion-a stark recovery from a $234 million profit in 2023 and a $25 million loss in 2022
according to the report. In the first nine months of 2025, net sales reached $20.6 billion, accompanied by $1 billion in profit and
a core profit of $2.7 billion. Adjusted EBITDA for the same period totaled $2.66 billion,
reflecting a 13.3% margin. These figures highlight Medline's ability to generate consistent cash flow, even amid macroeconomic headwinds.

The company's profitability is further amplified by its vertically integrated business model. With 69 facilities and a fleet of over 2,000 trucks, Medline
ensures next-day delivery to 95% of U.S. customers, a critical differentiator in an industry where supply chain reliability is paramount. This operational efficiency has
translated into a 4.75% net margin and a 7.65% return on equity (ROE), outpacing industry averages.

Post-IPO Stock Performance: A Mixed Bag

The IPO's debut was strong, with shares opening at $31-6.9% above the IPO price-on December 17, 2025
according to market data. However, post-launch volatility emerged as investors grappled with mixed signals. While
the company's debt reduction plans (targeting $4 billion in repayments) bolstered confidence, concerns over slowed revenue growth and operational uncertainties tempered enthusiasm
according to analysts. By November 2026, the stock traded at $28.00, a 6.9% decline from its IPO price, though it maintained
a $36.82 billion market cap.

This volatility reflects broader market skepticism toward leveraged buyout (LBO) exits. Medline, acquired by Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman for $34 billion in 2021,
carries a debt burden of $16.58 billion. While the IPO proceeds will reduce this load, analysts caution that lingering debt could constrain future flexibility. Nevertheless, Medline's EBITDA growth-averaging 62.9% annually-
suggests a resilient business model capable of weathering short-term headwinds.

Market Position and Strategic Advantages

Medline's scale and global footprint solidify its competitive edge. Operating in over 100 countries with 43,000 employees,
the company supplies 335,000 medical-surgical products to hospitals, clinics, and post-acute care facilities. Its logistics network, which includes 69 facilities and a 2,000-truck fleet,
enables rapid delivery and inventory optimization-a critical asset in an industry where just-in-time supply chains are increasingly challenged by inflation and geopolitical risks.

The IPO also unlocked new capital to address these risks. Proceeds will fund debt reduction and general corporate purposes, with the latter including
investments in digital transformation. Fitch Ratings has acknowledged these efforts,
maintaining a positive outlook on Medline's credit profile ahead of its public listing.

Challenges and Risks

Despite its strengths, Medline faces headwinds.
Tariff-related costs are projected to reach $150–200 million in fiscal 2026, while inflationary pressures could erode margins. Additionally,
the company's reliance on private equity ownership-Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman retain significant stakes-raises questions about long-term governance and strategic alignment with public shareholders.

Valuation and Investment Thesis

Medline's valuation remains compelling. With
a trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue of $27.43 billion and a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.34, the stock trades at a discount to peers in the medical equipment sector. Its earnings growth trajectory-
projected to outpace the industry's 11.1% average-further strengthens its case as a long-term investment.

However, investors must balance optimism with caution. The company's debt load and exposure to global supply chain disruptions necessitate a disciplined approach. For those willing to navigate these risks, Medline's post-IPO trajectory offers a unique opportunity to capitalize on the growing demand for medical supplies in an aging global population.

Conclusion

Medline's IPO has cemented its status as a cornerstone of the medical supply industry. While near-term volatility and debt management challenges persist, the company's operational scale, profitability, and strategic investments position it for sustained growth. As it transitions from a private equity-backed entity to a publicly traded company, Medline's ability to execute its debt reduction plans and adapt to macroeconomic shifts will be critical to unlocking its full market potential.