Mondelez Soars on Analyst Hype and Bullish Signals: Is This the Start of a New Rally?

Summary
• Mondelez (MDLZ) surges 2.67% intraday, trading at $69.27
• UBS hikes price target to $72.00, with Morgan Stanley and Stifel joining the bullish chorus
• Earnings beat and aggressive buy ratings from 14 analysts fuel momentum
• Options chain shows explosive call buying at $68–$70 strike prices
Mondelez’s sharp rally defies a mixed sector backdrop, driven by a flurry of analyst upgrades and robust technical setups. With the stock breaking above its 50-day MA and attracting speculative call buying, investors are weighing whether this is a breakout moment for the consumer staples giant.

Analyst Upgrades and Earnings Outperformance Drive MDLZ's Intraday Surge
The 2.67% rally in MDLZ is fueled by a cascade of analyst upgrades, including UBS’s $72.00 target and Morgan Stanley’s ‘overweight’ rating. These moves build on Q1 earnings that beat estimates by $0.07, with strong pricing execution in the chocolate division. While gross profit dipped due to cocoa inflation, the company’s $1.5B stock repurchase program and free cash flow generation of $800M in Q1 have reignited investor confidence. The stock’s break above its 50-day MA of $66.98 has triggered algorithmic buying, amplifying the short-term momentum.

Food Production Sector Rally Gains Momentum as Pepsico Leads Charge
The Food Production sector is in sync with MDLZ’s rally, led by Pepsico’s (PEP) 6.75% surge. While MDLZ’s 2.67% gain is impressive, the broader sector is benefiting from a shift in consumer spending toward durable staples amid inflation concerns. Companies like Conagra and Hershey have also seen renewed interest as investors rotate into sectors with pricing power. MDLZ’s 52W high of $76.06 remains a key psychological hurdle, but the sector’s resilience suggests the rally could extend if cocoa prices stabilize.

Options and ETF Strategy: Capitalizing on MDLZ's Bullish Momentum
• 200-day MA: $65.18 (well below current price)
• RSI: 51.17 (neutral territory)
• MACD: 0.0707 (bullish crossover with signal line at 0.2466)
• Bollinger Bands: 65.97–69.61 (price near upper band)
• Key Resistance: $69.43 (intraday high), $70.00 (psychological level)
• Support: $68.26 (intraday low), $67.17 (30D support)
MDLZ is in a classic breakout pattern, with options data showing aggressive call buying. For a bullish stance, consider MDLZ20250725C68 and MDLZ20250725C69, which offer high leverage and liquidity. The stock’s position above its 200D MA and RSI neutrality suggest further upside potential if cocoa costs stabilize.

Top Option 1: MDLZ20250725C68
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $68.00
• Expiration: 2025-07-25
• IV: 15.64%
• Leverage Ratio: 42.09%
• Delta: 0.8113 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Theta: -0.1218 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1579 (increasing delta as price rises)
• Turnover: 1,880 (high liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% Upside (72.73): $4.73
This contract offers aggressive leverage for a 5% move, ideal for short-term bulls capitalizing on the breakout.

Top Option 2: MDLZ20250725C69
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $69.00
• Expiration: 2025-07-25
• IV: 14.91%
• Leverage Ratio: 76.31%
• Delta: 0.6189 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1095 (moderate decay)
• Gamma: 0.2340 (responsive to price swings)
• Turnover: 2,671 (strong liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% Upside (72.73): $3.73
This option balances leverage and liquidity, offering a safer entry point for a sustained rally.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider MDLZ20250725C68 into a break above $69.43, while conservative players can use MDLZ20250725C69 as a core position.

Backtest Mondelez Stock Performance
The 3% intraday surge in MDLZ has historically led to mixed short-to-medium-term performance. While the 3-day win rate is 52.12%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term, the 10-day and 30-day win rates are lower at 49.14% and 49.76%, respectively. This suggests that while MDLZ may experience a positive reaction to an intraday surge, the overall medium-to-long-term performance may be more variable.

Bullish Setup Confirmed: MDLZ Poised to Challenge 52W High with Pepsico’s Momentum
MDLZ’s breakout above key technical levels and a barrage of analyst upgrades suggest the rally is far from over. With Pepsico (PEP) surging 6.75% and the Food Production sector showing resilience, investors should focus on a $70.00 psychological level and the 52W high of $76.06. The options data underscores strong speculative interest, making call options an attractive leveraged play. Watch for a continuation of the cocoa cost stabilization and earnings momentum to validate the move higher. For now, the path of least resistance is clearly up.