MDLZ Q4 Catalyst: The Final Report for FY2025

The final report for fiscal 2025 arrives on Tuesday, February 3, 2026, at 4:05 p.m. ET. This is a binary catalyst. The stock's 120-day decline of 20.28% sets a high-stakes narrative: a volume turnaround is needed to justify the pullback, while another pricing-driven beat risks confirming its overvaluation.

The setup is defined by a sharp outlook cut. In its third-quarter report, the company cut its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to a 15% decline, down from a previous 10% drop. This move, driven by a challenging North American consumer and persistent cocoa costs, frames the upcoming earnings as the definitive verdict on the year's trajectory. Investors are looking for confirmation that the worst is priced in-or a signal that the deterioration is accelerating.

The Volume vs. Pricing Narrative

The stock's decline is a direct result of a brutal trade-off between pricing and volume. The company's Q3 operating income fell 35.5% year-over-year to $744 million, a stark measure of the margin pressure from record-high cocoa costs. While management has successfully passed some of that inflation through, the 4.6% decline in volume/mix shows that price hikes are hitting demand. The core question for the final report is whether this is a temporary consumer pullback or the start of a structural volume loss.

Analysts expect a modest beat on the bottom line, with Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.70, up 7.7% year-over-year. But that number is a trap. It likely reflects another quarter of aggressive pricing, not a recovery. The real test is in the top line and the cash flow. Investors need to see stabilization in volume and mix after that sharp Q3 drop. The company's guidance for a rebound in Europe driven by Christmas activation is a hopeful sign, but it must translate into sustained demand, not just seasonal timing.

This brings us to a critical constraint: the company's commitment to returning capital. In the first nine months, it returned $3.7 billion to shareholders. That major cash outflow limits the internal funding available for volume-growth initiatives like marketing or new product launches. The setup is clear: the stock's valuation hinges on proving that the cost pass-through story is over and that a sustainable volume recovery is emerging. Without it, the margin pressure and cash drain will continue to weigh.

Valuation and Forward Scenarios

The market is pricing in a sharp rebound. With a forward P/E of 34.6 and a dividend yield of 3.48%, the stock's valuation assumes the worst of the cost and volume pressures is over. This multiple demands a clear signal that the company is transitioning from a defensive cost-pass-through story to a sustainable growth story. The upcoming earnings report is the immediate catalyst to validate or break that assumption.

The primary risk is a familiar, disappointing beat. Analysts expect a modest Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.70, up 7.7% year-over-year. That number is likely driven by another quarter of aggressive pricing, not a volume recovery. If the report shows another decline in volume/mix and fails to demonstrate stabilization, it will reinforce the narrative that Mondelez is merely passing costs through to consumers. In that scenario, the high multiple has no floor, and the stock's 120-day decline of 20.28% could resume as the market re-prices for a prolonged period of margin pressure and cash flow strain.

The opportunity, then, is a volume-driven earnings beat. Management has committed to increasing growth investments and driving volume improvement. A final report that shows volume stabilizing or even rebounding, particularly in the challenged North American market, would be the critical data point needed to support the current valuation. It would signal that the cost pass-through is ending and that the company's execution on its long-term playbook is gaining traction.

The bottom line is a binary setup. The stock's forward multiple is a bet on a turnaround. The February 3rd report is the definitive test. A beat that proves volume is improving could spark a relief rally. But another pricing-driven beat without volume proof will likely cap upside and confirm the stock's overvaluation. The event-driven trade hinges on which narrative the numbers deliver.