Is McKesson (MCK) Overlooked Amid Strong Analyst Bullishness?

The stock of McKesson Corporation (MCK) has become a focal point for investors seeking exposure to the healthcare sector, driven by a surge in Wall Street optimism. According to a report by Nasdaq, MCK carries an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.47, straddling the "Strong Buy" and "Buy" categories on a 1-to-5 scale, with 76.5% of the 17 participating analysts issuing "Strong Buy" ratings. This enthusiasm is further underscored by a consensus analyst rating of "Moderate Buy," supported by 13 "Buy" and 1 "Strong Buy" assessments, alongside a projected 11.81% earnings growth for the coming year. Yet, as the company's fiscal 2025 earnings results reveal a mixed bag of operational strengths and strategic shifts, the question arises: Is MCK truly undervalued, or is the market's bullishness already priced into its shares?

Earnings Performance: A Tale of Two Segments

McKesson's Q4 2025 results, as detailed in its earnings report, highlight the company's resilience in a competitive landscape. Consolidated revenues surged 19% year-over-year to $90.8 billion, fueled by a 21% increase in U.S. Pharmaceutical segment sales, driven by higher prescription volumes and oncology-related product distribution. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbed 64% to $10.12, outpacing the $3.99 YoY increase in GAAP EPS, a reflection of cost optimization and a lower tax rate. For the full year, MCK's Adjusted EPS reached $33.05, a 20% rise, while total revenues hit $359.1 billion, up 16%.

However, the earnings story is not uniformly positive. The International segment, which saw a 2% revenue decline due to the divestiture of Canadian operations, and the Medical-Surgical Solutions segment, which grew a modest 1%, underscore structural challenges. These segments, combined with a 10% reduction in operating expenses, suggest that MCK's growth is increasingly concentrated in its core U.S. Pharmaceutical and Prescription Technology Solutions businesses.

Strategic Moves and Analyst Optimism: A Symbiotic Relationship?

The company's decision to spin off its Medical-Surgical Solutions segment into an independent entity, announced alongside its Q4 results, has been widely interpreted as a value-unlocking move. Analysts at MarketBeat note that this separation aligns with MCK's focus on high-growth areas like oncology and biopharma, sectors poised to benefit from demographic and therapeutic trends. The move also aligns with Wall Street's expectations for MCK to maintain its capital deployment discipline, evidenced by $3.5 billion returned to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and buybacks.

Despite these strategic actions, the disconnect between analyst optimism and earnings fundamentals warrants scrutiny. While the consensus EPS target for 2026 stands at $36.64, MCK's own guidance of $36.75–$37.55 implies a 11–14% growth rate, slightly above the projected 11.81% as reported in the earnings release. This suggests that the company's performance has largely met-if not exceeded-expectations, yet the average analyst price target of $948.67 remains anchored to a forward P/E ratio of approximately 28.5x (based on 2026 guidance).

Is the Bullishness Justified?

The key to assessing whether MCK is "overlooked" lies in reconciling its earnings trajectory with valuation metrics. At first glance, the company's 20% YoY Adjusted EPS growth and 16% revenue expansion appear robust. However, the healthcare distribution sector is inherently cyclical and sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, such as inflationary pressures on drug pricing or regulatory changes. The International segment's decline and the Medical-Surgical spin-off also highlight operational risks that could temper long-term growth.

Moreover, the current analyst ratings may reflect an overconfidence in MCK's ability to sustain its recent momentum. While the company's U.S. Pharmaceutical segment is a growth engine, its reliance on this division raises concerns about diversification. As noted in a Yahoo Finance analysis of MCK's Q4 call, the 13% revenue increase in Prescription Technology Solutions-a segment tied to digital health trends-offers a partial offset to these risks.

Conclusion: A Stock at the Crossroads

McKesson's fiscal 2025 results demonstrate a company in transition, leveraging strategic divestitures and operational efficiency to drive growth. The Wall Street optimism, as reflected in the 76.5% "Strong Buy" ratings, is not unfounded but appears to hinge on the successful execution of its spin-off strategy and continued outperformance in oncology and biopharma. However, investors must weigh this optimism against the company's segment-specific vulnerabilities and the broader healthcare sector's exposure to macroeconomic headwinds.

For now, MCK's valuation appears to straddle the line between justified optimism and potential overreach. While the earnings-driven signals are largely positive, the question of whether the stock is "overlooked" may depend on how the market interprets its strategic moves in the coming quarters.