McEwen Inc.'s Revised Guidance and Strategic Growth Potential: Is This a Buy for 2026?

McEwen Inc. (NYSE/TSX: MUX) has faced a turbulent 2025, marked by downward revisions to its production guidance and operational setbacks. Yet, the company remains steadfast in its ambition to double gold equivalent ounce (GEO) output by 2030. For investors considering a 2026 entry, the question looms: Can McEwen overcome its near-term challenges while delivering on its long-term vision?

Operational Challenges: A Stumble in the Short Term

McEwen's Q3 2025 earnings report revealed a stark reality: full-year production guidance was slashed to 112,000–123,000 GEOs, down from earlier projections, due to unanticipated costs and production delays, according to a Q3 2025 press release. Q3 revenue fell to $50.5 million, though adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $11.8 million, reflecting cost discipline amid lower output, as noted in the same release. The company also raised its full-year cash cost guidance to $2,028–$2,128/oz and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) to $2,356–$2,456/oz, underscoring the financial strain, according to the release.

Operational hurdles include unmineralized material at the Gold Bar Mine and production shortfalls at the Froome mine, as highlighted in an earnings call summary. A Q3 net loss of $500,000, including a $4.3 million loss from McEwen Copper, further highlights the fragility of its current performance, per the earnings call. Analysts note that these issues, while concerning, are not insurmountable. "McEwen's revised guidance reflects temporary execution risks rather than structural flaws," argues a Stock Titan report.

Long-Term Catalysts: A Blueprint for Growth

Despite the near-term pain, McEwen's long-term strategy remains compelling. The company aims to double production to 250,000–300,000 GEOs by 2030, with the Fox Complex (Stock and Grey Fox mines) expected to contribute half of this target, according to the Q3 2025 press release. Key milestones include the Stock Mine's production start in mid-2026, which promises lower costs due to reduced royalties and shorter haul distances, as noted in an earlier article. The Grey Fox project, slated for a resource update in Q4 2025, could become McEwen's largest asset once its pre-feasibility study is completed in early 2026, per the same article.

The Los Azules copper project in Argentina is another linchpin. Its inclusion in Argentina's RIGI program ensures 30 years of fiscal and regulatory stability, according to the earnings call. A feasibility study projects a $2.9 billion after-tax net present value (NPV) at 8% and a 19.8% internal rate of return (IRR), assuming a $4.35/lb copper price, per the earnings call. While copper volatility remains a risk, the project's robust economics and political safeguards make it a critical growth driver, per the Stock Titan report.

Balancing Risks and Rewards

The path to 2030 is not without peril. Analysts caution that McEwen's growth hinges on the successful execution of capital-intensive projects like El Gallo's Phase 1, which requires permits and construction starting in H1 2026, per the earlier article. Delays or cost overruns could strain liquidity, particularly with higher-than-expected 2025 costs still fresh in investors' minds, according to the Stock Titan report.

However, the company's strategic positioning in rising metal prices-gold up 45%, silver 47%, and copper 13% year-to-date-provides a tailwind, as reported in the earnings call. Stronger commodity prices could offset higher production costs and bolster cash flow. Moreover, McEwen's updated Gold Bar guidance, expected soon, may alleviate some near-term concerns, per the earnings call.

Verdict: A Calculated Bet for 2026

For 2026, McEwen presents a high-conviction opportunity. The company's revised 2025 guidance reflects short-term turbulence, but its 2030 roadmap is underpinned by de-risked projects like Los Azules and near-term production ramp-ups at Stock and Grey Fox. While execution risks persist, the combination of favorable metal prices and regulatory tailwinds in Argentina offers a buffer. Investors willing to tolerate near-term volatility for a shot at transformative growth may find MUX compelling-but patience and a long-term horizon are prerequisites.