Can McDonald's Value Strategy Sustain Traffic Gains in 2026?

McDonald’s Corporation MCD reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, with global comparable sales increasing 5.7% and positive comparable guest counts across segments. U.S. comparable sales rose 6.8%, while International Operated Markets and International Developmental Licensed markets delivered 5.2% and 4.5% comp growth, respectively. Management highlighted that systemwide sales approached $140 billion for the full year, reflecting broad-based demand across markets.

Traffic performance was closely linked to the company’s value initiatives. In the United States, the rollout of McValue and the relaunch of Extra Value Meals were cited as contributors to improved value perception and guest count growth. Management noted share gains among lower-income consumers in December, alongside improvements in value and affordability experience scores. Value was positioned as a foundational element of the brand’s offering rather than a temporary pricing tactic.

Marketing activations and digital engagement further supported traffic momentum. Fourth-quarter campaigns, including MONOPOLY and the Grinch promotion, drove strong customer engagement and sales performance. The company’s loyalty program expanded to approximately 210 million 90-day active users across 70 markets. Management reiterated that loyalty members visit more frequently and spend more over time, reinforcing digital engagement as a driver of repeat traffic.

Looking ahead, as McDonald’s targets approximately 2,600 gross restaurant openings in 2026, management indicated that performance will likely depend on disciplined execution across value, marketing and menu innovation. The company noted that the quick-service restaurant environment is expected to remain challenging, particularly across income cohorts, and reiterated that value and affordability remain central to its operating approach.

MCD’s Stock Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of McDonald's have gained 9.5% in the past year against the industry’s fall of 4.2%. In the same time frame, other industry players like Starbucks Corporation SBUX, Sweetgreen, Inc. SG and CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA have declined 13.3%, 74.6% and 13.4%, respectively.

MCD One-Year Price Performance

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From a valuation standpoint, MCD trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 8.2, above the industry’s average of 3.79. Conversely, industry players, such as Starbucks, Sweetgreen and CAVA, have P/S multiples of 2.84, 0.92 and 6.87, respectively.

MCD’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MCD’s 2026 earnings per share has declined in the past 30 days.

EPS Trend of MCD Stock

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The company is likely to report strong earnings, with projections indicating an 8.6% rise in 2026. Conversely, industry players like Sweetgreen and CAVA are likely to witness an increase of 12.7% and 3.7%, respectively, year over year, in 2026 earnings. Meanwhile, Starbucks' fiscal 2026 earnings are likely to witness a rise of 8.5% year over year.

MCD stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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