McDonald's Soars 3.5% on Q2 Earnings Surge and Sales Rebound – What's Fueling the Rally?

Summary
• MCD surges 3.49% to $309.22, outpacing the 0.92% gain in the QSR sector
• Q2 global same-store sales jump 3.8%, exceeding 2.5% forecasts
• McCrispy Chicken Strips and Minecraft Movie promotion drive traffic
• Options chain shows high leverage ratios on 8/15-dated calls as bulls position for momentum

McDonald’s stock is trading at its highest level since early 2024, driven by a blockbuster Q2 earnings report and strategic value plays. The fast-food giant’s 3.8% same-store sales growth, coupled with aggressive menu innovation and marketing, has ignited investor optimism. With the stock trading above its 200-day moving average and options volatility surging, the question now is whether this rally can sustain its momentum.

Q2 Earnings Beat and Sales Surge Drive MCD's Rally
McDonald’s reported a 3.8% global same-store sales increase in Q2, far outpacing the 2.5% forecast, with U.S. sales rebounding 2.5% after a 3.6% decline in Q1. The turnaround was fueled by the return of the $2.99 Snack Wrap, McCrispy Chicken Strips, and the Minecraft Movie promotion, which drove traffic and value perception. CEO Chris Kempczinski emphasized 'value leadership' in a call with investors, while CFO Ian Borden reaffirmed 2025 guidance despite lingering consumer headwinds. The stock’s 3.5% intraday gain reflects renewed confidence in the company’s ability to navigate macroeconomic challenges through pricing agility and innovation.

MCD Outpaces Restaurant Sector as QSR Index Gains 0.92%
The Restaurant sector, as represented by the QSR index, rose 0.92% on the day, but McDonald’s outperformed with a 3.49% gain. Competitors like Taco Bell and Applebee’s are also testing value menus, but McDonald’s combination of global scale, brand strength, and data-driven marketing has created a widening gap. The company’s 3.8% same-store sales growth in international developmental markets (led by Japan) further underscores its structural advantage over peers.

Bullish Options and ETFs Position for MCD's Momentum
• 200-day MA: 301.25 (below current price)
• RSI: 49.82 (neutral)
• MACD: 0.8855 (bullish histogram)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 309.22, above upper band of 305.13

Technical indicators suggest MCD is in a short-term bullish breakout. The stock has pierced its 200-day moving average and is trading near its 52-week high of $326.32. For leveraged exposure, consider the MCD20250815C305 call option (strike $305, expiration 8/15) with a 47.25% leverage ratio and 18.69% implied volatility. This contract offers a 101.54% price change potential if the stock closes above $305. A second top pick is MCD20250815C307.5 (strike $307.5, 62.77% leverage), which benefits from high gamma (0.040867) and moderate delta (0.595251). Both options are liquid, with turnover exceeding 149,000 shares. Aggressive bulls may consider scaling into these calls as the stock tests key resistance at $309.87 (intraday high) and $310 (52-week low).

Backtest Mcdonald's Stock Performance
The backtest of MCD's performance following a 3% intraday increase shows a strategy return of 39.84%, with a benchmark return of 45.79% and an excess return of -5.95%. The strategy has a CAGR of 13.77% and a maximum drawdown of 0.00%, indicating a solid performance in terms of capital appreciation and risk management.

MCD’s Rally Gains Legs – Watch 305 Support and 310 Breakout
McDonald’s has re-established itself as a top-performing restaurant stock, driven by a combination of pricing power, menu innovation, and strategic value plays. The 3.49% intraday gain suggests a short-term bullish trend, but traders should monitor the 305.13 Bollinger Band support level and 301.74 intraday low for signs of weakness. The QSR sector’s 0.92% gain provides a favorable backdrop, but MCD’s outperformance highlights its unique momentum. For a continuation trade, consider the MCD20250815C305 call if the stock closes above $305. If $310 breaks, the 52-week high of $326.32 becomes the next target. Position sizing should reflect the stock’s elevated volatility, with stop-loss levels near the 299.33 moving average.