McDonald's Gears Up For Q4 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts

As McDonald's Corporation (MCD) prepares to report its fourth-quarter earnings on Monday, February 10, 2025, investors are eager to see how the fast-food giant has fared in the face of recent challenges. The company is expected to post earnings before the opening bell, with analysts mostly bullish on its stock. Let's dive into the recent forecast changes from Wall Street's most accurate analysts and explore what they reveal about McDonald's Q4 performance.



Analysts' Expectations for McDonald's Q4

Analysts expect McDonald's to report a close to 1% rise year-over-year in fourth-quarter revenue to $6.46 billion, along with a 3.6% drop in adjusted net income to $2.06 billion, or $2.87 per share. These expectations take into account the potential negative impact on sales from the E. coli outbreak linked to its Quarter Pounder burgers in October 2024.

The latest quarter could also reveal any negative impact on sales that McDonald's felt after the E. coli outbreak, which led to a switch in onion suppliers. In the days following the news of the outbreak, traffic to McDonald's U.S. restaurants fell steeply, particularly in the states affected. Customers have been slowly returning, but analysts are still expecting the company's U.S. same-store sales to fall by 0.6% in the quarter, according to StreetAccount estimates.



Analysts' Ratings and Price Targets for McDonald's

Nine of the 14 analysts covering McDonald's stock tracked by Visible Alpha have a "buy" or equivalent rating, with five "hold" ratings. Their consensus price target of about $323 would suggest a 10% upside from Friday's close. This bullish sentiment is supported by the recent forecast changes from Wall Street's most accurate analysts:

1. Citigroup analyst Jon Tower maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $334 to $336 on Jan. 28, 2025. This analyst has an accuracy rate of 72%.
2. Keybanc analyst Eric Gonzalez maintained an Overweight rating and cut the price target from $330 to $320 on Jan. 24, 2025. This analyst has an accuracy rate of 70%.
3. Morgan Stanley analyst John Glass maintained an Overweight rating and lowered the price target from $340 to $336 on Jan. 21, 2025. This analyst has an accuracy rate of 61%.
4. Truist Securities analyst Jake Bartlett maintained a Buy rating and cut the price target from $350 to $342 on Oct. 30, 2024. This analyst has an accuracy rate of 75%.
5. BMO Capital analyst Andrew Strelzik maintained an Outperform rating and raised the price target from $315 to $335 on Oct. 30, 2024. This analyst has an accuracy rate of 66%.

These analysts' ratings and price target changes indicate a positive outlook for McDonald's Q4 performance, with most maintaining or raising their price targets and ratings. The consensus price target of about $323 suggests a 10% upside from Friday's close, further supporting the bullish sentiment.



In conclusion, as McDonald's prepares to report its fourth-quarter earnings, investors can look forward to a generally bullish outlook from Wall Street's most accurate analysts. While the company has faced challenges such as the E. coli outbreak and inflation-driven customer spending pullbacks, its long-term growth prospects remain positive. As the company continues to focus on value offerings and adapt to changing consumer preferences, it is well-positioned to maintain its competitive edge in the fast-food industry.