MBS Torn Between Trump and Saudi People on Potential Israel Deal

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) of Saudi Arabia finds himself in a delicate position as he weighs the potential benefits and drawbacks of a historic deal with Israel, with domestic and international pressures shaping his calculus. The potential Saudi-Israeli accord, which could significantly reshape the Middle East's geopolitical landscape, has sparked both enthusiasm and concern among the Saudi public and the religious establishment, while also drawing the attention of US President Donald Trump.



Public Opinion and Religious Establishment

A 2023 poll by the Arab Barometer revealed that 63% of Saudis support normalization with Israel, while 32% oppose it. This shift in public opinion, driven by shared concerns about Iran and regional security, has emboldened MBS to consider a deal with Israel. However, the religious establishment, particularly ultra-conservative clerics, remains opposed to normalization, viewing Israel as an enemy and fearing that such a move would undermine the kingdom's religious credentials.



Economic Factors and Modernization

Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, spearheaded by MBS, aims to diversify the economy and reduce dependence on oil. A deal with Israel could open up new economic opportunities, including trade, investment, and technology sharing. This could help MBS gain domestic support for his reform agenda and cater to the desires of Saudi Arabia's youth, who are more open to normalization with Israel.

Trump's Influence

US President Donald Trump has been actively pushing for a Saudi-Israeli deal, viewing it as a potential legacy-defining achievement. Trump's personal relationship with MBS and his administration's support for the deal have put pressure on the Saudi crown prince to consider the proposal. However, MBS must navigate the delicate balance between satisfying Trump's ambitions and addressing the concerns of the Saudi public and religious establishment.



Challenges and Uncertainties

While the potential benefits of a Saudi-Israeli deal are significant, MBS faces numerous challenges and uncertainties. The Palestinian issue remains a sensitive topic in the Arab world, and a deal without a satisfactory resolution could lead to regional instability and economic repercussions. Additionally, the religious establishment's opposition and the potential backlash from the broader Arab world could pose obstacles to normalization.

In conclusion, MBS is torn between the potential benefits of a historic deal with Israel and the domestic and international pressures shaping his calculus. As he weighs the pros and cons, the Saudi crown prince must navigate the delicate balance between satisfying the desires of the Saudi public, addressing the concerns of the religious establishment, and accommodating the ambitions of US President Donald Trump. The outcome of this complex decision-making process will have far-reaching implications for the geopolitical balance in the Middle East and the region's economic landscape.