Matrixport: Bitcoin’s Bull Run Hinges on Fed’s Easing vs. Macroeconomic Risks

Source: [1] Is Bitcoin Price Set For Next Rally? - Forbes (https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/09/15/how-bitcoin-price-reacts-to-fed-rate-cuts/)

[2] Bitcoin steady ahead of Fed's rate decision - economies.com (https://www.economies.com/crypto/news/bitcoin-steady-ahead-of-feds-rate-decision-47349)

[3] BREAKING: Fed Cuts Rates by 25 bps — Bitcoin (https://cryptonews.com/news/live-fed-rate-cut-decision-crypto-bitcoin-2025-09-17/)

[4] Did Fed Rate Cut Reveal By Jerome Powell Just Trigger Next … (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/09/17/did-fed-rate-cut-reveal-by-jerome-powell-just-trigger-next-crypto-bull-run-phase/)

[5] Fed’s Sept. 17 Rate Decision: How a 0.25% Cut Could Reshape (https://www.ccn.com/education/crypto/fed-sept-17-rate-cut-impact-on-crypto-housing-equities-and-beyond/)

[6] Matrixport outlines new risks that could challenge … (https://crypto.news/matrixport-outlines-new-risks-that-could-challenge-bitcoins-rally-in-2025/)

[7] Matrixport shares the greatest risk to Bitcoin’s bull … (https://www.cryptopolitan.com/matrixport-shares-risk-bitcoin-bull-market/)

[8] Matrixport Warns BTC Momentum Fades on Weak U.S. Data (https://coinedition.com/matrixport-warns-bitcoin-momentum-fades/)

Singapore-based crypto analytics firm Matrixport has highlighted a potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s next bull run, citing the Federal Reserve’s recent policy easing and tightening credit spreads as key drivers. The firm’s analysis suggests that the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut on September 17, 2025, marks a pivotal shift toward accommodative monetary policy, which historically correlates with Bitcoin’s price appreciation. The Fed’s decision to lower rates for the first time in 2025 followed weaker labor market data and persistent inflation concerns, with Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish guidance reinforcing expectations of further easing in 2026.

Historical precedent underscores the link between Fed easing and Bitcoin’s performance. During the 2020–2021 bull market, Bitcoin surged from $7,000 to over $60,000 amid ultra-low interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing. Similarly, the 2019 rate cuts, though less impactful initially, eventually supported a broader risk-on environment. Matrixport notes that the current tightening of credit spreads—reflected in narrower yield differentials between short- and long-term debt—signals improved liquidity conditions, which could amplify Bitcoin’s appeal as a high-conviction asset.

The Fed’s rate cut has already triggered immediate market reactions. Bitcoin edged up 0.5% to $116,552 ahead of the decision, with stablecoin inflows onto exchanges rising to $2 billion, signaling potential capital reallocation into risk assets. Post-announcement, however, the market experienced a 0.4% dip, with $177 million in long positions liquidated within 24 hours. Analysts attribute this to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic, as much of the rate-cut anticipation had already been priced in.

Matrixport’s outlook is tempered by macroeconomic uncertainties. While the Fed’s dovish stance supports Bitcoin, risks such as sticky inflation and Trump-era tariffs could prompt a hawkish pivot. The firm also flagged quantum computing advancements, like Google’s 105-qubit “Willow” chip, as a long-term threat to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security. Additionally, shifting inflation dynamics and potential fiscal policies under a Trump administration could disrupt the Fed’s accommodative path.

Despite these risks, Matrixport remains cautiously optimistic. The firm’s models suggest that Bitcoin’s rally hinges on the Fed’s ability to maintain dovish guidance while addressing inflation without derailing economic growth. With the 2025 bull market already priced for further rate cuts, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin appears upward, provided macroeconomic conditions remain stable.

The Fed’s September decision has also reignited debates about Bitcoin’s role in a diversified portfolio. As institutional adoption grows—bolstered by spot ETF approvals—Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has risen to 0.9, reflecting its integration into mainstream risk assets. However, Matrixport cautions that Bitcoin’s volatility and exposure to regulatory shifts, particularly in the U.S. and China, remain critical variables.

In conclusion, the interplay between Fed policy and Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains a focal point for investors. While easing monetary conditions and tightening credit spreads present a bullish case, Matrixport emphasizes the need for vigilance against emerging risks. The coming months will test whether the Fed’s accommodative stance can sustain a crypto rally or if macroeconomic headwinds will reassert dominance.