Matchbook Debuting UK Prediction Market as US Expansion Looms

Matchbook, a sports betting exchange, is set to launch a prediction market platform in the UK in January 2026. The move is seen as a strategic step ahead of its planned expansion into the US market, where it aims to compete with rivals Kalshi and Polymarket. The UK launch will serve as a "road test" for Matchbook's technology before it seeks regulatory approval in the US, expected as early as March.

Matchbook, registered in Guernsey, is majority-owned by Zeljko Ranogajec, an Australian professional gambler. The company has been operating a sports exchange for approximately 20 years. Its UK debut will test how well the American enthusiasm for prediction markets translates overseas, particularly in a country with a long tradition of legal sports betting.

The new prediction market offering will differ from traditional sports betting by using percentage probabilities for "yes" or "no" outcomes, rather than the fractional odds commonly used in the UK. This format aligns more closely with the presentation used on US-based platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have gained popularity since the 2024 US election.

Strategic Expansion and Regulatory Hurdles

Matchbook's launch in the UK will be conducted under its existing exchange license with the UK Gambling Commission. It will also introduce a prediction market as a white-label provider for easyBet, part of easyJet founder Stelios Haji-Ioannou's group. This partnership demonstrates Matchbook's broader ambitions in the prediction market sector and its willingness to collaborate with established players to expand its reach.

Ronan McDonagh, interim chief executive officer of Matchbook, emphasized that the platform operates on the same exchange engine as traditional betting but presents the contracts in a more intuitive format. The goal is to attract a new audience and spark interest among users who might not have engaged with betting exchanges before.

The company's US expansion, however, faces regulatory hurdles. Matchbook's US partner, RSBIX LLC, filed with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch an exchange. RSBIX, led by Jeff Ifrah, has previously struggled to gain regulatory approval for similar ventures. Despite these challenges, Matchbook remains confident in its ability to compete in the US market from day one, citing its strong technological platform and partnerships.

Competitive Landscape and Market Dynamics

Kalshi and Polymarket have played a significant role in popularizing prediction markets, particularly in the US. These platforms function as federally regulated financial exchanges, allowing them to offer event contracts across various categories such as politics, sports, and pop culture. This regulatory status enables them to operate nationwide, bypassing state-specific gambling restrictions.

Kalshi has faced legal challenges from several US states, including New York and Massachusetts, which have raised concerns over whether its offerings fall under state gambling laws. The company has been actively defending its operations in court, with recent rulings, such as one from Connecticut, temporarily preventing states from taking action against it.

Polymarket, another key player, is also strengthening its market position by building an in-house trading team to compete directly with its users. This approach mirrors that of Kalshi and could lead to increased competition for liquidity. Polymarket is also expanding its US presence after receiving regulatory clearance from the CFTC, allowing it to relaunch its services.

Implications for the Market

Matchbook's entry into the UK market represents a significant development in the global prediction market landscape. The UK has long been a hub for legal sports betting, and Matchbook's experience in this sector positions it well to adapt its model for a broader audience. With Kalshi and Polymarket not available in the UK, Matchbook faces a different regulatory environment, one that may be more accommodating to its services.

The prediction market sector is gaining momentum, with companies like Robinhood exploring similar offerings. Robinhood has already engaged with the UK Financial Conduct Authority to discuss the potential expansion of prediction markets beyond the US.

For Matchbook, the UK launch is a critical step in preparing for the US market. The company's interim CEO, Ronan McDonagh, has stated that it is open to partnering with other firms for distribution in the US if that proves advantageous. This flexibility underscores Matchbook's strategic approach to entering a highly competitive market.

As Matchbook, Kalshi, and Polymarket continue to expand their services, the regulatory landscape remains a key factor. In the US, the CFTC's role is pivotal, while in the UK, the Gambling Commission oversees similar activities. How these regulatory bodies respond to the growing popularity of prediction markets will shape the future of the sector.