Marvell Technology Surges 3.26% on Bullish Momentum, Eyes $75.85 Resistance as Technical Analysis Highlights 5.87% Three-Day Gain

Marvell Technology (MRVL) has surged 3.26% in the most recent session, extending a three-day winning streak with a cumulative gain of 5.87%. This upward momentum warrants a comprehensive technical analysis to assess its sustainability and potential for further gains.

Candlestick Theory

Recent price action reveals a bullish bias, with the stock forming higher highs and higher lows over the past three days. Key support levels can be identified at prior consolidation zones, such as the $72.95 level (August 25 close), which has acted as a psychological barrier during previous pullbacks. Resistance appears at $75.85 (August 7 close), a price level that has historically capped upward movement. A breakout above this resistance could trigger a retest of the $77.81 level (August 12 close), while a failure to hold above $72.95 may invite further consolidation or a temporary retracement.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is supported by the 50-day moving average (approximately $74.00), which has been trending upward and currently lies below the 200-day average ($75.00). This "golden cross" configuration suggests a bullish medium-term trend, though the 100-day average ($74.50) indicates that the stock is still within a range-bound phase. The current price of $77.23 sits above both the 50-day and 100-day averages, reinforcing the potential for continued upward bias. However, traders should monitor the 200-day average as a critical threshold; a sustained close above $75.00 could validate a long-term bullish shift.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram shows positive divergence, with the line crossing above the signal line in recent sessions, signaling strengthening bullish momentum. The KDJ oscillator (stochastic RSI) indicates overbought conditions, with the K line at 85 and D at 80, suggesting a potential near-term correction. While this may not immediately invalidate the uptrend, it highlights a risk of short-term profit-taking. Divergence between the MACD and KDJ—where the MACD remains robust despite the stochastic reaching overbought levels—could signal a continuation of the rally, but traders should remain cautious of a pullback to test key support levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded in recent sessions, with the stock trading near the upper band ($78.085, August 28 high). This position suggests overbought conditions and a potential mean reversion to the 20-day moving average ($75.50). The bands’ width has widened from a narrow contraction observed in mid-August, indicating an impending breakout phase. If the price closes above the upper band, it may signal a strong continuation of the uptrend; conversely, a drop below the middle band could indicate a temporary pause.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged in recent sessions, peaking at 36.9 million shares on August 28 (vs. an average of 15-20 million in prior weeks). This volume surge aligns with the price rally, validating the strength of the upward move. However, a divergence may emerge if volume declines while the price continues to rise, signaling waning conviction. The current volume profile supports the view that the uptrend is driven by institutional buying, but retail participation could introduce short-term volatility.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI has reached 68, nearing overbought territory (threshold at 70). While this suggests a potential short-term pullback, it does not necessarily signal a bearish reversal, especially in a strong uptrend. Historical data shows the RSI frequently oscillating between 60 and 70 during this rally, indicating a healthy bullish phase. Traders should watch for a rejection at the 70 level or a failure to hold above 60 as potential bearish signals.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent $72.95–$77.23 range, key retracement levels at 38.2% ($75.50) and 50% ($75.00) align with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, respectively. A break above $77.23 could target the 61.8% level at $76.50, while a pullback to $75.00 may find support from the 200-day average. These levels represent confluence points where multiple indicators (moving averages, Fibonacci) agree, increasing the probability of a meaningful reaction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA (golden cross) and the RSI remains below 70, indicating a healthy uptrend without overbought exhaustion. Exit criteria might include a close below the 50-day MA or a bearish divergence in the MACD. Historical data from MRVL’s August rally suggests that such a strategy could capture 3-4% gains per trade, though it would require strict risk management to limit losses during false breakouts.