Marvell Technology Plunges 7.6% Amid Institutional Jitters and AI Partnership Volatility

Summary
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) slumps 7.6% to $74.26, erasing recent AI-driven gains
• Institutional investors own 84% of MRVL, amplifying sensitivity to portfolio rebalancing
• Recent partnership with Rebellions for AI infrastructure sparks mixed market sentiment
• Options chain shows aggressive short-term bearish positioning with 15.3% drop in leveraged ETF MVLL

Marvell Technology’s intraday plunge to $73.52—its lowest since April—reflects a confluence of institutional selling pressure, insider share disposals, and sector-wide AI supply chain recalibrations. With the stock trading 9% below its 200-day moving average, the move underscores fragile sentiment despite recent strategic AI collaborations.

Institutional Ownership and Insider Selling Trigger Volatility in Marvell Technology
Marvell’s 7.6% intraday drop stems from a perfect storm: 84% institutional ownership concentrated in 20 shareholders, recent insider sales by COO and CFO, and sector-wide regulatory scrutiny on AI chip exports. The stock’s 52-week high of $127.48 now feels distant as Fubon Research’s bullish thesis on Microsoft AI chip prospects clashes with Morgan Stanley’s sector-wide price target hikes. Compounding this, Samsung’s $16.5B Tesla chip deal and NVIDIA’s H20 export resumption have shifted capital away from MRVL’s AI infrastructure bets.

Semiconductor Sector Mixed as AI Supply Chains Reconfigure
GraniteShares 2x Long MRVL Daily ETF (MVLL) and Options Strategy Amid Turbulence
• GraniteShares 2x Long MRVL Daily ETF (MVLL): -15.3% intraday, tracking MRVL’s 7.6% drop
• 200-day MA: $83.42 (well below current $74.26)
• RSI: 69.7 (overbought but bearish divergence emerging)
• MACD: 1.95 vs Signal 1.34 (bullish crossover fading)
• Bollinger Bands: Lower band at $68.38 (critical support near $73.52)

Top Option 1: MRVL20250808P72 (Put, $72, 8/8 exp)
• IV: 57.48% (mid-range volatility)
• Delta: -0.34 (moderate directional bias)
• Gamma: 0.058 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Theta: -0.008 (minimal time decay)
• Turnover: $247,161 (liquid)
• Leverage: 49.49% (high reward potential).
This put benefits from a 5% downside scenario: max payoff $2.26 (74.26 → 69.55).

Top Option 2: MRVL20250808C73 (Call, $73, 8/8 exp)
• IV: 57.53% (aligned with sector)
• Delta: 0.598 (moderate bullish exposure)
• Gamma: 0.061 (high responsiveness)
• Theta: -0.361 (aggressive time decay)
• Turnover: $305,801 (high liquidity)
• Leverage: 23.20% (balanced risk).
Call payoff under 5% downside: $0.55 (74.26 → 69.55).

Trading Setup: Aggressive short sellers should target MRVL20250808P72 for a 5% downside play. Conservative bulls may use MRVL20250808C73 as a hedge if MRVL retests $73.52 support. Watch for $72 breakdown to trigger deeper bearish positioning.

Backtest Marvell Technology Stock Performance
After an intraday plunge of -8%, Microchip Technology (MRVL) has historically shown positive short-to-medium-term gains. The backtest data reveals favorable win rates and returns over 3, 10, and 30 days, indicating that MRVL tends to recover and even exceed its previous levels:

Bullish Breakout or Bearish Breakdown: The Crossroads for Marvell Technology
Marvell Technology’s 7.6% drop signals a critical inflection point. With institutional ownership at 84% and insider selling intensifying, the stock faces near-term headwinds. However, the $73.52 intraday low and $68.38 Bollinger lower band could stabilize the name. Watch Nvidia (NVDA)’s -2.49% move as a sector bellwether. Immediate action: Short MRVL20250808P72 if $72 breaks; buy GraniteShares 2x Long MRVL ETF (MVLL) on a $73.52 rebound. The AI semiconductor race is far from over—position accordingly.