Marvell Technology (MRVL) Shares Jump 7.33% as Bullish Candlestick Pattern Indicates Strong Buying Pressure

Marvell Technology (MRVL) closed at $80.09 on the most recent session, marking a 7.33% increase, which aligns with a bullish candlestick pattern suggesting strong buying pressure. Key support levels are identified at $74.23 (prior low on 2025-09-18) and $70.98 (2025-09-17), while resistance is evident at $81.72 (2025-09-24 high). The recent price action forms a potential bullish continuation pattern, with the 2025-09-24 high acting as a breakout candidate.

Candlestick Theory

The recent candlestick pattern shows a strong white candle (2025-09-24) with a high range, indicating institutional buying. Key support levels at $74.23 and $70.98 are reinforced by multiple touches in the data. A bearish reversal pattern may emerge if the price fails to hold above $74.23, but the current setup suggests a continuation of the uptrend.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average is likely above the 200-day line, confirming a bullish bias. As of the latest data, MRVL is trading above its 200-day MA, which acts as a dynamic support. The 100-day MA at ~$75.50 and 50-day MA at ~$76.50 suggest that the short-term trend remains intact, with the price consolidating above these levels. A breakdown below the 50-day MA could signal a shift in momentum.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive, with the line crossing above the signal line, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. The KDJ indicator (Stochastic oscillator) shows %K at 80.3 and %D at 78.1, suggesting overbought conditions. However, divergence between the KDJ and price action (e.g., higher highs in price but lower highs in %K) may hint at a potential pullback. The RSI (discussed below) corroborates the overbought state but must be interpreted cautiously in strong trends.

Bollinger Bands

The price is currently near the upper Bollinger Band at $81.72, reflecting high volatility. The bands have expanded significantly since late August 2025, indicating a breakout phase. A retest of the lower band at ~$74.00 could occur if volatility wanes, but the current positioning suggests continuation of the trend.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume on the latest session ($399.97 million) is notably higher than the preceding session ($1.6 billion), validating the strength of the price surge. Sustained volume above $1.5 billion on up days reinforces the likelihood of trend continuation. However, declining volume on follow-through rallies may signal exhaustion.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI is at ~70.3, indicating overbought conditions. While this may suggest a short-term correction, the RSI has remained above 50 for much of September 2025, reflecting a strong uptrend. A drop below 50 would signal a bearish shift, but the current overbought reading should be viewed as a warning rather than a sell signal in a strong trend.

Fibonacci Retracement

Drawing retracement levels from the recent high ($81.72 on 2025-09-24) to the low ($74.02 on 2025-09-23) shows key levels at 38.2% ($78.00), 61.8% ($76.00), and 78.6% ($75.20). The current price is approaching the 78.6% level, which could act as a critical support for a potential pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy, which involves buying MRVL when RSI exceeds 70 and selling when it drops below 30, yielded a 28.77% gain from November 2022 to August 2023. However, this approach relies on RSI alone, which can generate false signals in trending markets. Integrating confluence with moving averages and volume would enhance reliability. For instance, the 2022 buy signal at $43.68 (RSI 70.31) coincided with a bullish MACD crossover and rising volume, validating the trade. Conversely, a standalone RSI overbought signal in a strong trend may not trigger a correction, as seen in the current setup. A refined strategy could combine RSI thresholds with price above the 50-day MA and expanding Bollinger Bands to filter high-probability trades.

The analysis highlights a strong confluence of bullish indicators (moving averages, MACD, and volume) but cautions against relying solely on RSI overbought readings in trending environments. Key divergences between KDJ and price suggest potential short-term volatility, while Fibonacci levels offer defined targets for risk management. The backtest strategy’s success underscores the importance of combining momentum oscillators with trend-following tools to optimize entry/exit points.